000 AGXX40 KNHC 150706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 306 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT...EXCEPT NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE EACH NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCE BY A THERMAL THROUGH. BY SAT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER TEXAS BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. AS A RESULT...MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 7-8 FT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...UPDATED MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE GALE FORCE WIND ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...MAINLY FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-77W. IN ADDITION...SHIP CALL SIGN PBAD IS ALSO REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE THIS MORNING. THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE LATER TODAY AS THE ATLC HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 10-11 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N WATERS AND STRETCHES FROM 28N65W TO 27N72W TO 29N81W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT W OF 75W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE MAINLY S ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS REACHING 24N-25N THIS EVENING AND THE SE WATERS ON SAT WHILE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS S OF 27N...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH WINDS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA W OF 70W AND NEAR THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENINGS. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE N WATERS BY MON REACHING A POSITION NEAR 30N73W...THEN SHIFT S TO NEAR 27N72W BY TUE AS A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE FAR NE WATERS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 4-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS...HIGHER ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE E WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS OF 3-6 FT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.