000
AGXX40 KNHC 061735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
WATERS...WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE FAR SW GULF. SEAS ARE
IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND 4-6 FT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS
WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 13 FT OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
ELONGATED LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...4-7 FT OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...WITH REGARDS TO BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER ELONGATED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AT THE
MOMENT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL FURTHER ORGANIZE AND DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WED EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.