000 AGXX40 KNHC 011850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT FRI MAY 01 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. USED 12 UTC TAFB NWPS VALUES FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN GULF SUN. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AT 27N95W WITH A RIDGE SSE TO OVER SE MEXICO. A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS OF THE GULF ALONG A POSITION FROM 29.5N84W NW TO INLAND SE LOUISIANA. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXITED THE GULF YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER NW COAST OF CUBA. LATEST SATELLITE BUOY...CMAN AND A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS SHOW GENTLE WINDS N OF 24N...NW-N IN DIRECTION E OF 88W AND NE-E TO THE W OF 24N. S OF 24N...GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS ARE E OF 88W...AND GENTLE N-NE WINDS ARE W OF 88W. LATEST ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH BUOY AND FEW SHIP REPORTS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT SE OF A LINE FROM TAMPA TO 19N93W...AND 1-3 FT TO THE NW OF THIS SAME LINE. MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE NDFD GRIDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SE REACHING THE FAR SE WATERS BY 12 UTC SAT...AND TO WELL E OF THE AREA LATER ON SAT. THE NW-N WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT TO NE DURING SAT MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE NW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE NE GULF BY SAT EVENING. THE POST-TROUGH OVER NW CUBA WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SE TONIGHT AND SAT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONGER HIGH PRES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SSW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF SUN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LONG TERM CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE SEEN AS AN INCREASE OF ELY WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AND SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND THEN THE REST OF THE EASTERN GULF AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CENTRAL GULF MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THAT AREA. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REACH CENTRAL WATERS MON INTO TUE AS IT WEAKENS. THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS ARE SIMILAR WITH POSITION OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE WESTERN GULF WED...AND IS FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD THERE TO THE RANGE OF ABOUT 6-8 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. USED BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS BECOME STATIOANRY FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW TO INLAND THE N CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ACROSS NW CUBA. THE 1415 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS MISSED THE ONGOING AREA OF SE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT DID INDICATE E-SE 15-20 KT E OF 66W...AND BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. THE 20-25 KT ARE IN BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. SHIP "C6VR4" AT 15.5N72W JUST RECENTLY REPORTED E WINDS OF 20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 FT. ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH BUOY REPORTS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS W OF 72W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WINDS FROM THE N IN DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE E WINDS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AS NOTED IN REPORTS BY BUOYS 41300 AND 41040. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 5-6 FT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT JUST ALONG THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO DISSIPATION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE SE FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SAT...THEN COME BACK TO FRESH SPEEDS SUN...AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE MON THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. RELATED SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT MON AND TO 9-11 FT TUE THROUGH WED WITH THIS AREA OF SEAS GRADUALLY SLIDING WESTWARD DURING THOSE DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. USED BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER MOST PARTICULARLY WITH THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF LOW PRES IN VICINITY OF BAHAMAS. THE 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED THE NW PORTION THIS MORNING ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N78W SW TO DAYTONA BEACH. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W SW TO 22N75W AND TO CENTRAL CUBA. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND NW CUBA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP... BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS...AND FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE SLY WINDS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR NE WATERS...5-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR LOWER VALUES OF 1-2 FT IN THE BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN WATERS AND 4-5 FT...WITH SEAS TO 7 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AS FOR THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD: THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH OM NEAR 31N69W TO 26N72W TO 25N78W BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATE BY EARLY ON SUN FROM NEAR 29N65W TO 26N70W...AND WEAKENING STATIOANRY FRONT TO 22N78W. THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT...WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION WEAKENS TO A TROUGH THAT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS MON. THE TROUGH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD MON NIGHT AS MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND STALL OVER THE NW BAHAMAS S TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA TUE. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH TUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES N OR NNE THROUGH TUE NIGHT A SHARP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS BAHAMAS. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING S TO THE N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE LATEST 12 UTC ECMWF THAT JUST ARRIVED DEPICTS A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM. THIS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS MEAN ENSEMBLE. WILL WAIT TO SEE IF FUTURE GFS AND THE OTHER GLOBAL RUNS TREND LIKEWISE BEFORE CONFIDENCE LEVEL INCREASES FOR THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. IN ANY EVENT...THE FORECAST FOR WINDS AND AND SEAS NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/LOW WILL MOST LIKELY REQUIRE UPDATED IN FUTURE NDFD TAFB GRIDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.