000 AGXX40 KNHC 220509 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 109 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SLIGHT HINT OF AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW GULF ON TUE...BUT AVAILABLE SURFACE OBS ALONG MEXICAN COAST ONLY REPORTING 6 SM IN HAZE...SO INTRODUCED LOCAL VSBY 3 SM SMOKE/HAZE 1ST PERIOD ACROSS E BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROAD REMNANTS OF A FRONT EXTEND W FROM CENTRAL FL TO EXTREME S TX. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT N AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA/ISOL TS. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20-25 KT EVENT ON FRI EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUN EVENING. THESE E-SE PULSES WILL PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOONS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENT WILL REACH NEAR 26N94W. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SE GULF ON FRI AND SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SAT NIGHT AND PASS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS ON SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...THEN THE AFFECTED AREA SHOULD SHRINK TO WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON EACH NIGHT STARTING ON THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON SUN NIGHT. E-SE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT ROUND OF NNE SWELL WILL REACH 19N55W TONIGHT DRIVING THE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 8 FT BY MIDDAY THU...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REACHING NEAR THE E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THU EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN SUBSIDING FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY ECMWF WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO SE FL AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA/ISOL TS. THE FRONTAL SEGMENT N OF OF 26N WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W ON THU FINALLY STALLING NEAR 28N58W. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. N SWELLS...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT...HAVE PROPAGATED S ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 26N E OF 60W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE S REACHING THE TROPICAL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON THU WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY THU EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR 29N75W THIS EVENING...AND SHIFT ENE PASSING S OF BERMUDA LATE THU LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE W TO NE FL. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RETRACT E LATE THU ALLOWING A SECOND COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE FRI...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 10- 15 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW N OF THE AREA. A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS FRONT AND NOW MOVES IT TO A LINE FROM 31N62W TO THE SE BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT WASHES OUT N OF PUERTO RICO ON SAT...WHILE THE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT PASSES E THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W. THE SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY SAT...FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N EITHER SIDE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF THE 20- 25 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 28N ON SAT NIGHT. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS LAST FRONT IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.