000 AGXX40 KNHC 141852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 252 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES AND SHIFT EWD INTO W AND NW SECTIONS OF THE GULF...MAINLY E OF 94W ATTM. A 65-75 KT JET MAX HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF CUT OFF LOW AND ACROSS NE MEXICO. THIS ALSO EXPECTED TO AID IN KICKING OUT CUT OFF LOW TO THE NE AND SPREAD DYNAMICS MORE TO THE ENE ACROSS THE N GULF AND INTO N AND NW FLORIDA BY THU MORNING. ACTIVE CONVECTION THUS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF N HALF OF BASIN NEXT 48 HOURS WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FAVORING PERSISTENCE ACROSS N MEXICAN COASTAL ZONES. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT TO 5-6 FT ASSOCIATED WITH YUCATAN WIND MAX. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN LLVL PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI BEFORE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES AS STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE ACROSS NW ATLC AND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND DEEP LAYERED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY E ACROSS SRN PLAINS. THIS TO FRESHEN SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS W HALF OF BASIN FOR INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. ECMWF A BIT SLOWER IN LIFTING OUT THIS NEXT ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW ACROSS SW U.S. BEYOND DAY 4 AND HAVE THUS BLENDED MORE ECMWF BEYOND THIS TIME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS ATLC RIDGING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL RIDGE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM SHIFTS SLOWLY SE AGAINST IT...WHILE NW ATLC HIGH SHIFTS ENE AND IS MAINTAINING STRONG RIDGING W AND SW INTO SW N ATLC. THIS CONTINUES TO YIELD SUFFICIENT INFLUENCE ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS. A BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT TRADES UPSTREAM. THE COLOMBIAN COASTAL AREA IS FORECAST TO CONSIST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALSO WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF 25-30 KT. INFLUENCE OF NW ATLC HIGH TO PREVAIL THROUGH WED BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO NE ATLC AND PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS STRONG HIGH BEHIND CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL RESTRENGTHEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SW N ATLC AND CARIB AND INCREASE PULSING NOCTURNAL WINDS AT REGIONAL HOT SPOTS...SUCH AS COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ATLC MAINTAINING A LONG ENE FETCH OF 20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS AND WILL MAINTAIN ENE TRADE WIND SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS 4-6 N PORTIONS...AND WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT S PORTIONS. LONG PERIOD NLY SWELL FROM CENTRAL ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING BOMB WILL INVADE NRN WATERS LATE SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT IN LINE WITH ECMWF LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NE PART OF THE AREA REMAINS ACTIVE AS DYNAMICS MOVING THROUGH BROAD BASE OF N ATLC TROUGH CONTINUE TO ACT UPON PERSISTENT LLVL CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ALONG BOUNDARY. ATLC RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EWD INTO E ATLC EXTENDING WEAKLY WWD INTO CENTRAL ATLC...WHILE STRONG HIGH BEHIND FRONT IS SHIFTING GRADUALLY ENE ACROSS NW ATLC AND INFLUENCING MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS ATTM. FRESH TRADES ARE S OF 23N AND ALONG N COAST OF CUBA AND THROUGH SOUTHERN STRAITS OF FL. NO CHANGE TO PATTERN THROUGH 24 HRS BEFORE EVOLUTION OF CENTRAL ATLC BOMB BEGINS AND LOOKS TO PEAK THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN FASTEST AND FARTHER ENE THAN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS WITH ASSOCIATED S/W WITHIN SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH...AND ECMWF SLOWEST...BUT MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z RUN...WITH GFS NOW JUST A BIT FASTER AND FARTHER NE WITH DEVELOPING LOW. HAVE A 2/3 TO 1/3 EC/GFS BLEND DAY 5-6 WHICH BRINGS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT A BIT FARTHER S INTO LOCAL WATERS...REACHING 27N65W BY 12Z FRI. STRONG HIGH BEHIND FRONT TO PRODUCE LARGE AREA 25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SINKS S INTO THE AREA THU AND FRI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS TO 30 KT. SEAS REACH 8-11 FT NE PORTIONS BY 12Z FRI WITH ASSOCIATED NLY SWELL MOVING INTO ATLC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH PEAK ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.