000 AGXX40 KNHC 131750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1259 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTER DAY 4. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES PRODUCING SCT RW/ISOL TS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE FAVORABLE AREA FOR TS IS LIKELY TO SHIFT E AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO LIFTS NE. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE EACH EVENING THROUGH FRI EVENING... THEN ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT ON SAT EVENING. THESE E-SE 20-25 KT PULSES WILL PROPAGATE W ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH THE TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE GULF WATERS ALONG THE TX COAST LATE TUE NIGHT. A SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE NW WATERS TILL LATE FRI...THEN DRIFT E AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS ON SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH A FEW MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS PER ALTIMETER DATA ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT NEAR GALE 25-30 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90- 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT MAXIMUM CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT OF THE PERIOD BEGINNING ON TUE NIGHT AS THE ATLC RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. STRONG TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND TUE...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. E TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 29N65W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY WESTWARD TO NE FL. THE COLD FRONT SEGMENT WILL PASS E OF 55W ON TUE WHILE THE FRONTAL TROUGH PORTION LIFTS N OF 31N AS A RIDGE REBUILDS FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT SE ON TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE GA COAST ON WED...THEN ACCELERATING E EARLY WED REACHING FROM 31N62W TO 29N70W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO 30N81W WHERE A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THU. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N NW OF THE FRONT TO 72W LATE WED...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING S TO ALONG 27N BETWEEN 70-55W ON THU NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE FRI. THE RESULTANT NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE S WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 67-55W ON SAT. THE WEAK LOW OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL LIFT NE ON FRI LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH S ALONG 80W TILL THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND REBUILDS W ON SAT AND PUSHING THE WEAKENING TROUGH REMNANTS INLAND. TUTT INDUCED LOW-MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGHS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG 25N AND PROPAGATE W ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION...BUT DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BAHAMAS. THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS 15-20 KT TRADES S OF 23N...EXCEPT ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...DURING THE AFTERNOONS INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS THROUGH THU EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.