000 AGXX40 KNHC 090705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA. DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING TONIGHT. ANOTHER DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE BEFORE REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED FEATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER THIS PATTERN...MAINLY MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL... EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED... AND NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE EACH NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL FORCING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-3 FT IN THE NE GULF...AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE. ALSO...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT IN THE NW GULF NEAR AND WITHIN 30-60 NM OF SHORE WITH VISIBILITIES LOCALLY DROPPING TO AROUND 1 NM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED NE-E WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE JUST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...HOWEVER CONDITIONS DO NOT SEEM TO BE AS FAVORABLE AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS TO SUPPORT ACTUAL MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS SO A GALE WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT. WINDS OF 25-3O KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH 20-25 KT THEREAFTER. THE LATEST 0.25 DEGREE GFS MODEL SOLUTION NOW INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT/THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN ACROSS THE BASIN AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. IF THE NEXT RUN OR 2 OF THE GFS CONTINUES THIS TREND ANOTHER BRIEF GALE WARNING MAY SOON BE NEEDED. FRESH SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11-13 FT DURING THE TIME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG PULSING WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT...AND DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT AND THEN PULSING THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER TRADES...EXCEPT 2-4 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL PREVAIL AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9 FT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 29N70W TO 23N73W WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS NOSING INTO THE NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS REPORT LIGHT WINDS IN THE NW PORTION UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ELSEWHERE N OF 22N...AND FRESH NE-E WINDS S OF 22N EVEN TO 25 KT NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT S OF 27N OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT ACROSS THE SHELTERED AREAS...WITH 2-4 FT SEAS N OF 27N. LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY FRI. THE PESKY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FINALLY BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE BY FRI. A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND... STALLING ALONG 28N E OF 76W BY MON MORNING WHILE IT DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT TROUGH. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.