000 AGXX40 KNHC 081820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED ON A 1022 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED FEATURES IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER THIS PATTERN...MAINLY MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL... EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE EACH NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL FORCING. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT IN THE NE GULF...AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE. ALSO...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT IN THE NW GULF NEAR AND WITHIN 30-60 NM OF SHORE WITH VISIBILITIES LOCALLY DROPPING TO AROUND 1 NM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WERE OBSERVED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING BASED ON A HIGH RESOLUTION RAPIDSCAT PASS. WINDS OF 25-3O KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 12-13 FT...PARTICULARLY ON FRI MORNING WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN ACROSS THE BASIN AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING...AND S OF HISPANIOLA AT NIGHT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER TRADES...EXCEPT 2-4 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL PREVAIL AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9 FT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE:LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN INVERTED-V TROUGH IS NOTED ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM 30N68W TO 25N71W. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WHICH IS ALSO PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...BECOMING DIFFUSE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THU. THEN...A RIDGE WILL BUILD E TO W ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL...EXCEPT S OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W...INCLUDING THE REGIONAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT INSIDE THE SHELTERED AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THEN...THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND BE E OF AREA BY MON. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 5-6 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.