000 AGXX40 KNHC 080625 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE FAR NE GULF NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE W NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS DRIFTING OFFSHORE TO THE W-NW WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING TONIGHT. DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGHING IS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF DRIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REDEVELOPING AGAIN LATER TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED FEATURES IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER THIS PATTERN...MAINLY MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF WHERE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS...AND NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH LEVELS EACH NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL FORCING. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT IN THE NE GULF...AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE. ALSO...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT IN THE NW GULF NEAR AND WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE WITH VISIBILITIES LOCALLY DROPPING TO AROUND 1 NM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE-E WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-14 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO SURROUND THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES THEN PERSISTING IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OCCASIONALLY EXPANDING TO COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO EXPANDING CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE REGION AND LOW PRES ACROSS INTERIOR NW COLOMBIA. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG...AND S OF HISPANIOLA WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT/WED NIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER TRADES...EXCEPT 2-4 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL PREVAIL AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9 FT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PRONOUNCED NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 22N TO 29N ALONG 69W WHICH WAS CLEARLY DEPICTED IN RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS FEATURE. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING DIFFUSE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THU. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL...EXCEPT S OF 22N WHERE WINDS ARE LOCALLY TO 20 KT. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...HIGHEST S OF 22N...AND 1-3 FT INSIDE THE SHELTERED AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT JUST N/OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA WHERE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG WHICH WILL BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT. BY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES TURNING WINDS TO SE-S ACROSS THE BASIN AHEAD OF IT AS THE RIDGING BACKS OFF WELL TO THE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE FRONT IS NOW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SLIP SE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE SW N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS BY SAT AFTERNOON...EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA BY EARLY SUN MORNING...THEN FROM 30N65W OR S OF BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SUN EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY DEFORM INTO A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.