000 AGXX40 KNHC 041904 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 304 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS EXTREME S TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE AND MOVING SE ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS...NOW TO KAAF...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF BOUNDARY YIELDING NE WINDS 20-25 KT...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT IN TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM JUST N OF TAMPA BAY TO BROWNSVILLE TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS W PORTION LIFTS NORTHWARD. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF FRONT W PORTIONS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND SHIFT TO NE PART AND THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WINDS VEER E TO SE AS HIGH TO N SHIFTS EWD. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT E INTO ATLC THROUGH MID WEEK LEAVING A GENERALLY WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH THE ONLY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE STANDARD LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TROUGHING OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN STARTING LATE MON. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS A MODERATE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 109 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND 1029 MB HIGH PRES SHIFTING NE OF BERMUDA PERSISTS AND IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 7 FT...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 10 FT OFF COLOMBIA...WHERE A 1106Z ALTIMETER PAS SHOWED 9 FT JUST TO W OF EXPECTED MAX. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PULSING TO A MAX NEAR 30 KT OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 12 FT BY MON AND TUE NIGHT. THE ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA HAS WEAKENED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IS ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OF MID ATLC COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OFF HISPANIOLA STARTING SUN TO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA REMAINING DEEPER THAN AVERAGE... SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT TO YIELD WINDS TO MINIMAL GALES OFF COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS W ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1029 MB HIGH THROUGH BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA..WITH STALLED FRONT ALONG 24N. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC TO HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...SOME VERY DEEP. MODEL INDICATE THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT AND THE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E THROUGH TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ATTM. THIS NEW FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N75W TO JUST S OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN STALL ALONG 29N OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE AND DRIFTING N MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. GFS FORECASTING SMALL AREA TO 30 KT TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS THEN DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY WITH MODERATE E TO SE FLOW PREVAILING N OF 22N THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF 22N...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE STARTING LATE MONDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.