000 AGXX40 KNHC 030756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 356 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 28N FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES PERSIST IN MOST AREAS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FT. WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ACROSS THE GULF STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NW GULF...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS REASONABLY GOOD AMONG MAJOR MODELS WITH THE GFS AND UKMET REMAINING CONSISTENT SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW OVER MAINLY THE WATERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS ON SAT. THE FRONT WILL STALL BY LATE SAT FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SUN...RETURNING THE GULF TO THE CURRENT WEAK PRES PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A MODERATELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RELATIVELY DEEP 1006 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 10 FT OFF COLOMBIA. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINLY OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 12 FT BY EARLY SAT. THE ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWING TRADE WINDS AND GAP FLOW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FROM LATE SAT TO LATE SUN. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OFF HISPANIOLA STARTING SUN NIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS HIGH RESOLUTION GFS. VARIOUS WAVE MODELS INDICATE NE SWELL TO AT LEAST 7 FT WILL REACH THE ATLC WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SAT INTO SUN...AND AGAIN MON AND TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 26N E OF 74W AND WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THIS FRONT CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL SUPPORT A TONGUE OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY E OF 65W...ALLOWING SEAS TO 8 FT TO BRIEFLY REACH THE WATERS BETWEEN 23N AND 25N W OF 68W LATER TODAY. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST EARLY SAT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND STALLING ALONG 26N THROUGH LATE SUN. THE 00 UTC GFS...UKMET AND ECWMF MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH EARLY RUNS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NE WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS E OF NE FLORIDA SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND UKMET INDICATE A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH...THE TRAILING END OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT...WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT THROUGH MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF 25N E OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS MON AND TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.