000 AGXX40 KNHC 020800 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF W CENTRAL FLORIDA WESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES PERSIST IN MOST AREAS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT. THE EXCEPTION IS OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN WHERE THE NORMAL OVERNIGHT TROUGH TO DEVELOPS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT INDICATING THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF SAT...AND OVER THE NE GULF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...COMPARED WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER UKMET. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...STALLING ALONG 26N BY LATE SAT BEFORE LIFTING N AGAIN LATE SAT AND SUN. THE PATTERN RETURNS TO SOMETHING RESEMBLING THE CURRENT PATTER WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS ARE PULSING TO 20-25 KT OFF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL BUILD LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS OFF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRI. TRADE WIND FLOW DIMINISHES SAT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE UNITED STATES. THE BUILDING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL ALLOW STRONG NE FLOW IN THE LEE OF CUBA EARLY SUN...AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OFF HISPANIOLA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE MAINLY AT NIGHT. LITTLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT BUT USED HIGHER RESOLUTION 00 UTC GFS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. ECWAVE/TAFB NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVES. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING 1029/1030 MB HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL AND BE CENTERED NEAR 35N70W BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONG WINDS NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY TONIGHT. NE SWELL TO 8 FT GENERATED FROM STRONGER WINDS E OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE WEST 65W BETWEEN 23N AND 25N LATE FRI THEN SUBSIDE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SAT AHEAD OF ANOTHER...STRONGER FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY SAT...REACHING FROM 31N70W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SAT...AND FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY. OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A STRONGER SOLUTION IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND UKMET CALLING FOR 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS N OF 27N LATE SUNDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO MONDAY AND LEAVING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATE MONDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.