000 AGXX40 KNHC 010740 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 340 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. PRODUCT RELEASED EARLY FOR COMPUTER MAINTENANCE ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. 1020 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES PERSIST IN MOST AREAS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT. THE EXCEPTION IS OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN WHERE THE NORMAL OVERNIGHT TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM AROUND 04 UTC INDICATED WINDS TO 25 KT OFF THE N COAST OF YUCATAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG NE WINDS. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...STALLING ALONG 26N BY LATE SAT BEFORE LIFTING N AGAIN LATE SAT AND SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE PULSING OFF COLOMBIA TO 25 KT AS NOTED IN A 02 UTC SCATTEROMETER ASCAT PASS. STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA IN THE SAME ASCAT PASS. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 5 TO 7 FT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 4 TO 6 FT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. PERSISTENT RIDGING CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TRADES. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING RELATIVELY MODEST WINDS AND SEAS TODAY. RIDGING WILL INCREASE AGAIN N OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT...ALLOWING FOR A GENERAL INCREASE IN TRADE WIND FLOW WITH PULSES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA STARTING THU THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVES. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 31N67W TO 29N72W IS MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A SECOND FRONT MOVE SOUTHWARD CROSSING 31N LATE TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA N OF 26N THROUGH LATE THU. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER BUT INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF 30N TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LATEST 00 UTC RUNS FOR THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THE PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATING WINDS TO 25 KT N OF 30N TODAY AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING CENTERED ALONG 28N/29N THU AND FRI WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES OVER MOST AREAS N OF 22N...AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF 22N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E STARTING LATE FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST EARLY SAT...REACH FROM 31N75W TO CAPE CANAVERAL BY LATE SAT...BERMUDA TO WEST PALM BEACH BY EARLY SUN...BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE ALONG 27N BY LATE SUN. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...WITH 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT SAT INTO SUN WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.