000 AGXX40 KNHC 251653 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1253 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT...IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT STILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THU AFTERNOON. A RIDGE DISSECTS THE GULF FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT 23N98W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT TODAY ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL AND NW GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS ON THU MORNING...WITH THE SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT FLOW THEN SHIFTING E ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL WATERS LATE THU...AND ACROSS THE NE GULF ON THU NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THU EVENING...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE SE TX COAST...THEN SPREADING S ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST EARLY THU NIGHT...REACHING THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI MORNING. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER...AND A 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE WARNING WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED OVER THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON FRI AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH NW-N WINDS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT BY LATE FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SE OF THE GULF WATERS. A POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NW GULF ON FRI NIGHT WILL SHIFT ENE TO NEAR THE W FL PANHANDLE ON SAT NIGHT... AND NEAR THE THE FL BIG BEND ON SUN EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AT 15 KT OVER THE NW GULF. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NE-E 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE GULF...INCLUDING THE N APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN PASSAGE...ON SUN EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH 15 KT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THU EVENING AND NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SAT...AND LOSE IDENTITY FROM HISPANIOLA TO NE NICARAGUA ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT W OF THE FRONT ON SAT NIGHT...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SUN EVENING. EXPECT A SWATCH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 16N78W LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. FURTHER TO THE S EXPECT THE PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...TO SUPPORT STRONG 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90-150 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT EVENTS WILL MAX BRIEFLY AT 30 KT. FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THU...THEN SPREAD E ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS LATE THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO 16N65W WHERE IT WEAKENS TO A FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS ON FRI. A N-S TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG THE GA AND FL COASTS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND BY THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL. LIGHT E WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS... WILL GRADUALLY BECOME E-SE 10-15 KT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KT ALONG 26N E OF 70W THIS EVENING....WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING SE TO ALONG 24N E OF 69W ON THU... AND THEN PASSING E OF 55W LATE FRI. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS TONIGHT. THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CLOCK TO THE S-SW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27.5N ON THU- FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS ON FRI AFTERNOON. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT ON FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SAT EVENING WITH GRADIENT THEN SUPPORTING NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON SUN EVENING...THEN STALL AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM 25N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON MON EVENING. STILL EXPECT A SW-W-NW 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27.5N BETWEEN 65-55W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON. A W-E RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG 28N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN SHIFT S TO ALONG 26N ON MON NIGHT. EXPECT SW-W 20-25 KT WINDS TO DEVELOP N OF 30N ON MON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.