000
AGXX40 KNHC 221855
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING FROM TEXAS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM NOW THROUGH MON. NEITHER MODEL SHOWED
WINDS REACHING 20 KT UNTIL 06Z TUE WHEN A WEAK...FAST MOVING
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NE GULF AND INVIGORATES A SURFACE
BOUNDARY THERE. THE GFS SHOWS 20 KT NE WINDS TUE MORNING MAINLY IN
THE COASTAL WATERS. BOTH MODELS SHOW SE RETURN FLOW IN MUCH OF
THE GULF BY WED MORNING AND CARRY A NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE NW
GULF THU NIGHT. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE 12Z EC WAVE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEAK ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW   
COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...DIMINISHING
TO 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING. ON WED NIGHT...THE MODELS AGREE ON
BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC AND ALLOW A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE TO EXPAND OVER A LARGER AREA OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND S OF HISPANIOLA
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE N STRENGTHENS. 
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS BLENDED WITH THE GFS
MODEL. THE ECMWF 0.25 WAS GOOD WITH THE SWELLS. THE NWPS WAS NOT
CAPTURING THE SWELLS ADEQUATELY IN THE ATLC OCEAN...AND IT CAUSED
PROBLEMS AROUND ANDROS ISLAND. MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE.

20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS ARE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT...AT 36 HOURS AND AT 48 HOURS. AN AREA OF 8-10 FT N SWELL...
NOW ROUGHLY FROM 50W EASTWARD...CONTINUES TO BECOME SMALLER WITH
TIME THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.