000 AGXX40 KNHC 190557 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 157 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ORIGINATING FROM TUE EVENINGS LOCAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE W EARLY THIS MORNING...AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MORNING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT EACH EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE EVENTS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER...WITH 15-20 KT WINDS ENHANCED WINDS...BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N- CENTRAL GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT E TO OVER THE E GULF LATER TODAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER WITHIN A RIDGE FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE FL STRAITS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS FLUCTUATING ON THE STRENGTHS AND TRACKS OF TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. USING A MODEL BLEND...THE CURRENT SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E THROUGH THE FAR NE GULF WATERS ON FRI...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A SW-W-NW 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON SAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF...AND CONTINUES E REACHING FROM MS DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN...FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE MON...AND MOVE SE OF THE AREA ON WED. THE ASSOCIATED SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL ONLY BE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE TILL THE FRONT IS RE-ENFORCED ON MON AND THE GRADIENT THEN SUPPORTS NLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS OVER ALL THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N W OF THE FRONT...THEN INCREASING TO NE 15-20 KT ON TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT STRONG 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD... DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT FRESH NE-E TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS ON THU EVENING. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REMAIN E OF 55W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SAT WITH MODERATE TRADES FORECAST E OF THE WINDWARDS AGAIN. FRESH ESE TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND ON FRI...SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT STRONG E WINDS BRIEFLY ON SAT NIGHT. REINFORCING N SWELL WILL PROPAGATE S INTO THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS LATE FRI AFTERNOON...BUILDING COMBINED SEAS TO 6-8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FURTHER S ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS ON SAT..THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N64W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E AND W BETWEEN 23-26N. LIGHT NE-E WINDS ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT BECOMING MODERATE TO THE S OF 21N TO INCLUDE THE ATLC APPROACHES TO THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 31N58W TO 27N71W...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N80W WITH NE-E 15-20 KT FLOW OBSERVED N OF THE FRONT. THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT W OF 70W WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT RAPIDLY NE TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH E-SE FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT NE OF THE FRONT TO 70W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT...WILL ENTER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT...REACH FROM 31N73W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT... THEN ACCELERATE E REACHING FROM 31N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SAT...THEN STALL TO THE S OF 27N ON SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ON SUN. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 30N78W LATE MON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO THE BAHAMA CHANNEL. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE ON TUE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS...WITH NORTHERLY 15-20 KT FLOW DEVELOPING N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.