000 AGXX40 KNHC 171743 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE FAR WESTERN GULF FROM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 27N97W INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACCOMPANY THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH THU EVENING...ENHANCEMENT OF NE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CURRENT BLEND OF GFS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHOWING SLIGHTLY STRONGER E-NE WINDS ON FRI AND SAT NIGHTS PRODUCING NE 15-20 KT WINDS. THESE WIND PULSES WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A 1021 MB HIGH ANCHORED IN THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 28N94W IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE E-SE THROUGH EARLY WED AND PROVIDE MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A WEAK FRONT SLIPPING ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT WILL QUICKLY ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE HIGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY ON FRI AS A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS SE FROM THE MS DELTA TO FL BAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF WITH NE 20 KT POST- FRONTAL FLOW AND PRECEDED BY SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT FLOW. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING SW NORTH ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT PULSING STRONG 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90 TO 75 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE SAT WITH MODERATE TRADES E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AGAIN. FRESH E-SE TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THU AND FRI NIGHTS...WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT STRONG E WINDS BRIEFLY SAT NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N49W TO 23N65W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT INTO WED. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAIN IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE WITH HIGHER WINDS NOTED ON EARLY ASCAT PASSES N OF 28N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 43W. HOWEVER...RESULTING NW SWELL CONTINUES TO GENERATE COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 8-13 FT...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF 8 FT SEAS REACHING ALONG 25N ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS E OF 67W. THESE SEAS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A POST-FRONTAL 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 26N73W WILL SHIFT SE TO NEAR 24N64W BY WED MORNING AS A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS N OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N AS FAR EAST AS 60W. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE CAY SAL BANK WED...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N W OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING FROM 31N58W TO 29N65W TO 26N80W. THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT W OF 75W WILL MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN FL STRAITS ON WED EVENING AND PASS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE BAHAMA CHANNEL LATE WED NIGHT...THEN ACCELERATE NE ON THU WITH E-SE FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N-NE OF THE FRONT AND W OF 70W. THE THIRD COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS ON THU NIGHT...AND MOVE E REACHING FROM 31N71W TO THE NW BAHAMAS SAT... THEN STALL FROM 30N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.