000 AGXX40 KNHC 160559 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 159 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD NW TO SE ORIENTATED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 24.5N95.5W TO 18.5N92.5W. NW WINDS WERE ARE AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS SW OF THE TROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THESE NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT. GUIDANCE NOW HANGS ON TO THIS WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH WED MORNING...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT. FURTHER N...A RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM THE MS DELTA TO FL BAY WILL WEAKEN AS A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR NW GULF ON TUE...THEN SHIFTS E ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS ON WED...TURNS SE TO OVER THE SE GULF ON WED NIGHT WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THIS SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL SET UP ANTICYCLONIC 5-10 KT FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF FROM TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT...EXCEPT NE 10-15 KT WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...WITH THIS WIND PULSE SHIFTING W ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE CLOCKING TO THE SE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON FRI EVENING WITH NE 20 KT POST-FRONTAL FLOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAKENING ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT STRONG 20-30 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH THE AFFECTED AREA SHRINKING CLOSER TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHTS EVENTS SHOULD MAX AT 25 KT...BUT ONLY EXTEND OFFSHORE FOR ABOUT 120 NM. EXPECT THESE NOCTURNAL 20-25 WINDS TO ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 60 NM FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHTS. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH WED...THEN FRESH E TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS. FRESH ESE TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS WILL RACE E TO A POSITION FROM 31N51W TO HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...REACH FROM 26N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON TUE...WITH THE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WASHING OUT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUE-WED. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 29N WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE FRONT HAS INCREASED TO 20-25 KT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES TO THE E OF 55W. THE POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW HAS ALSO INCREASED TO 20-25 KT N OF 29N WITHIN ABOUT 360 NM W OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO SHIFT N OF 31N EARLY TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT NW SWELL WILL DRIVE UP COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS TO 8- 12 FT...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF 8 FT SEAS REACHING ALONG 24N ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 70W AND QUICKLY SUBSIDING FROM THE W. A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BUILD E OFF THE FL COAST ALONG 28-29N TODAY WITH AN EMBEDDED HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR 30N79W. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT SE TO OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT E ALONG 25N TO NEAR 68W ON TUE NIGHT...AND NEAR 24N63W ON WED NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON TUE NIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N55W TO 27N65W...THEN BECOME A NE MOVING WARM FRONT TO 31N78W ON THU...ALL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE NW WATERS ON FRI...BUT QUICKLY STALLING ON FRI NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.