000 AGXX40 KNHC 151808 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 208 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO NEAR 26N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 24N94W TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. A RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS WITH A 1023 MB HIGH PRES OVER NE MEXICO. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LEAVING A TROUGH ACROSS THE SW GULF. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZO23 LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SW GULF...PARTICULARLY S OF 21N AND W OF TROUGH AXIS. THEN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 22N THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A WEAK HIGH PRES CELL OF 1020-1022 MB DEVELOPING OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF LATE MON THROUGH WED. THEN...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING MID WEEK AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NE GULF WATERS. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY ACROSS THE BASIN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WERE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE GALE WARNING THAT HAS BEEN IN EFFECT IN THIS AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1800 UTC TODAY. THE FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF 8-10 FT BY MON...AND TO AROUND 8 FT BY LATE TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION RAPIDSCAT N OF 30N E OF FRONT TO 70W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS TONIGHT... FROM 26N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON MON...THEN WASH OUT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUE AND WED. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE N WATERS TODAY WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE NE WATERS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY MON EVENING...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ115. THEN...HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST REGION TUE AND WED WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE S OF 30N EARLY WED AND EXTEND FROM 27N65W TO NE FLORIDA ON THU. NORTHERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER SE WATERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY... AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.