000 AGXX40 KNHC 130526 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 126 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES OVER THE NW GULF TRAILS A COLD FRONT SE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW TODAY ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT E ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY THEN STALLING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH N-NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ON SAT EVENING THROUGH SUN MORNING...FURTHER INCREASING TO NW-N 20-25 KT ACROSS THE SW GULF ON SUN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS TO NW-SE ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM 25N95W TO 19N91W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON TUE WITH THE NW FLOW DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT SW OF THE TROUGH AND NE-E 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS NE OF THE TROUGH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH ABNORMALLY DEEP LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH NE-E WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. NE 20-25 KT WINDS RECENTLY VERIFIED BY SCATTEROMETER IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N56W TO 28N70W TO 30N81W WILL CONTINUE S AND REACH FROM 24N55W TO THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY SAT...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY S ON SAT. N- NE 20 KT WINDS WITH SMALL EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT MORNING...EXCEPT THE FLOW WILL BECOME SE 15-20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS TONIGHT...THEN CLOCK TO THE S ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE GA COAST ON SAT NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SW 15-20 KT N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT ON SUN...THEN INCREASING TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE NW FLOW ...WITHIN ABOUT 360 NM BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 28N ON MON...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W ON MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS ON TUE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 25N65W. EXPECT NE 15-20 KT FLOW S OF 25N W OF 68W ON TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.