000 AGXX40 KNHC 110843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 443 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS COMPLEX SFC PATTERN EVOLVING ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING AS SHARPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES FROM PLAINS STATES SWD THROUGH WRN MEXICO. S/W MOVING THROUGH W SIDE OF BASE AIDING IN INCREASING CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS MEXICO AND PRODUCING NEG TILT TO BASE...AND YIELDING VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS NE MEXICO AND W GULF COASTAL WATERS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS NW PORTIONS PAST 24 HOURS EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO JUST N OF VERACRUZ...WHILE TROUGH AHEAD OF FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE COASTAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 24N92.5W. MODERATE SE TO S SLOW PREVAILS E OF BOTH OF THE FEATURES WITH E-SE WINDS 20 KT NOW BLOWING THROUGH STRAITS. WINDS GENERALLY N TO NE 15-20 KT BEHIND FRONT BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS OFF VERACRUZ DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GFS HAS COME AROUND MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF IN RECENT RUNS...WITH MODELS INDICATING SFC LOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 24.5N95W AND RIDE N-NE ALONG SNAKING FRONT...MOVING INLAND ACROSS SW LOUISIANA THU AFTERNOON. FRONT TO BOW AND BULGE AS THE LOW WRAPS UP DURING THIS TIME...WITH SRN PORTION LIKELY TO MOVE E AND SLIGHTLY OUT AHEAD OF N PORTION. ALSO...UPPER DYNAMICS ACROSS MEXICO WILL SHIFT E INTO WRN GULF AND AID IN STRONG CNVTN GROWTH THROUGH FRI MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST ABOUT A 24 HOUR WINDOW TODAY THROUGH THU FOR INCREASING WINDS TO FILL IN BEHIND FRONT AS LOW DEVELOPS...WITH BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT AND POTENTIAL TO 30 KT ACROSS W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW...AND ALONG MEXICAN COAST UNDER OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS. FRONT TILL INCH FORWARD AND FINALLY EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG 90W BY EARLY FRI EVENING...THEN N PORTION BEGIN TO MOVE EWD INTO FL BIG BEND BY SUN MORNING WHILE S PORTIONS MEANDERS ACROSS ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND W COAST OF YUCATAN. REINFORCING HIGH AND APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE NW SAT TO INCREASE P-RES GRADIENT W OF FRONT ACROSS SW PORTIONS AND INCREASE NW TO N WINDS AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT THROUGH SUN WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25-30 KT ALONG VERACRUZ COAST. N PORTION OF FRONT TO BREAK UP ACROSS N CENTRAL FL SUN NIGHT AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. PEAK SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 9 FT OFF OF VERA CRUZ TONIGHT...AND THEN 9-10 FT SAME LOCATION SUN NIGHT UNDER INCREASING GRADIENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS STRONG W ATLC RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG 30-31N THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PRES ACROSS COLOMBIA TO MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL CARIB...WHERE 25-30 KT TRADES EXTEND N TO 15N...WHILE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT S OF HISPANIOLA ALSO PRODUCING 25-30 KT. 1029 MB HIGH HAS SHIFT E OF BERMUDA...WITH GRADIENT DUE S PRODUCING E-NE TO NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS ALL OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 25 KT. BROAD AND PERSISTENTLY STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS BASIN PRODUCING AN IMPRESSIVE WAVE FIELD ATTM...WITH BUOY 42058 NOW UP TO 14 FT AT 9-10 SECS...AND 2315Z ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING SEAS 10-12 FT BETWEEN SE COAST OF JAMAICA AND SW COAST OF HAITI. AS HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER NE NEXT FEW DAYS RIDGE WILL NARROW AND SINK S TO ALONG 29N AS ANTHER FRONT SINKS S INTO NRN WATERS THU NIGHT AND RIDGE COLLAPSES. STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL THEN SHIFT SE AND BUILD INTO AREA FROM THE NNW TO MAINTAIN STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE HIGH SHIFT SE INTO CENTRAL ATLC AND THEN BEYOND...AND GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN SUN- MON. GALES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OFF OF COLOMBIAN WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AND BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 30 KT EACH AFTERNOON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32.5N60W EXTENDS RIDGE WWD INTO N FL-GA THIS MORNING AND PRODUCING STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES LIT UP FROM TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH STRAITS OF FL. GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WINDS TO PULSE TO NEAR 30 KT OFF NW COAST OF HAITI EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SPILL SOMEWHAT INTO WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND MORE LIKELY THU NIGHT AS WIND FLOW BACKS MORE NE. SEAS THROUGH THIS SRN CORRIDOR TO BUILD TO 7-10 FT THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS HIGH SHIFT NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC AND RIDGE COLLAPSE ALONG 28-29N. NEXT FRONT TO SINK S INTO N PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND BE FORCED S BY STRONG HIGH SHIFTING SE OFF OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH FRONT SINKING S AND WASHING OUT AS SHEARLINE EARLY SUN ALONG 22N. I STILL PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE FOLLOWING FRONT MOVING S INTO N PORTIONS EARLY MON AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT REACHES PUERTO RICO TUE EVENING. GOES-R IFR PRODUCTS SHOWING GOOD CHANCE FOR COASTAL FOG FROM NE FLORIDA TO NEAR HATTERAS THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED IN WX GRIDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO THU. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.