000 AGXX40 KNHC 080757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 357 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN ECMWF REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSIST ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA THEN W-SW ACROSS STRAITS...WHILE COASTAL TROUGHING ALSO PERSISTS ACROSS SW PORTION. NWLY WINDS INCREASED THIS PAST AFTERNOON TO GALE FORCE W OF THE TROUGH...AND HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT...BUT SEAS SUBSIDING MORE SLOWLY AS PER RECENT BMO OB THERE AT 2.9M. E TO W RIDGE ALONG 31-32N FROM SE U.S. INTO ATLC WILL SHIFT E TODAY AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW ACROSS BASIN THEN BEGIN TO VEER E-SE TONIGHT AND MORE SE ON MON AS HIGH SHIFT TOWARDS BERMUDAAND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG TEXAS COASTAL ZONES THROUGH UPPER MEXICO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF FRONT TO SHIFT WWD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO LIFT AND ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AND FORM WARM FRONT...AS NEW FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS SE TEXAS AND SHIFTS SLOWLY SE INTO NW GULF...MERGING WITH COASTAL TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW WILL SPILL DOWN TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS FORCING FRONT WITH IT...MOVING INTO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED AFTERNOON WHILE FRONT REMAINS FROM SE LA SSW ACROSS W CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BASIN THEN SHIFT E TO ALONG 90W BY THU MORNING AS LOW DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AND MOVES N ALONG BOUNDARY. NWLY FLOW ALONG LOWER MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS WED EXPECTED TO REACH 25-30 KT WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS POTENTIALY ENHANCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF OF VERACRUZ. LOW TO LIFT NNE AND INLAND THU AND WEAKEN...LEAVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AND WEAKENING THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MIGRATORY RIDGING ACROSS MID LATS N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA TO MAINTAIN WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. RECENT 02-03Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED MINIMAL GALES S OF 13N OFF OF COLOMBIA WITH 25 KT TRADES EXTENDING N TO 15.5N. ELSEWHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS DEEP LAYERED TUTT INDUCED LLVL TROUGH ALONG 54W MOVES WWD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES AND WEAKENS PRES GRADIENT NEAR TROUGH. TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND INTO E CARIB MON MORNING TO STRENGTHEN PRES GRADIENT TO THE N AND NE...AND TO THE E AFTER PASSAGE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN IN NE TRADE WIND SWELL MON THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRONG LLVL WIND SURGE CURRENTLY BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND S OF 13-14N WILL FILL IN ACROSS SRN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT 72 HRS ACCOMPANIED BY WINDSEA AND RAISE SEAS S OF 12N TO 9-12 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS COLD FRONT FROM 29N65W TO NW BAHAMAS THEN STATIONARY ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAGGED EWD ACROSS N PORTIONS N NEXT 48 HOURS...WHILE SW PORTIONS MEANDERS...BECOMING STRUNG OUT NEARLY E TO W ALONG 27N E OF 70W BY MON EVENING...WHILE PORTION W OF 70W LIFTS N AS WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF SLOW SYSTEM GRADUALLY EVOLVING IN THE GULF. HIGH PRES CENTER EMERGING OFF OF SE U.S. AND SETTLING ACROSS W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA MON THROUGH WED WILL PRODUCE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT N OF HAITI AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WINDS PULSING INTO WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 30 KT EACH EVENING AND NIGHT. LONG ESE FETCH THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND N OF CUBA WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD 7-10 FT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND VEER MORE SE THROUGH REST OF WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.