000 AGXX40 KNHC 231839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 139 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS OUTPUT FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO N MEXICO. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT AND 2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SE TODAY AND STALL FROM NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY TUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF WATERS MIDWEEK THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ACROSS N FLORIDA BY EARLY THU. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SE GULF WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILED N OF THE AREA HAS STARTED TO RETREAT EASTWARD. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...7-10 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 8-10 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA HAS STARTED TO RETREAT EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ONE MORE ROUND OF NOCTURNAL GALES OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD BACK N OF THE AREA MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. NE SWELLS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY MIDWEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF NE SWELLS WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE BACK INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 5-7 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...THEN DIMINISH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS THROUGH TUE. WEAK LOW PRES WILL FROM ALONG THE STALLING FRONT NEAR 31N75W THEN SHIFT NE OF THE AREA. A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS WED. THIS LOW PRES AREA WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY THU MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING SOUTHERLY GALE WARNINGS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N EARLY THU MORNING. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS SHIFTING N OF THE AREA LATE THU. THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW THU...AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO REBUILD WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.