000 AGXX40 KNHC 230759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS OUTPUT FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 06 UTC SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF REACHING FROM NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA TO NEAR SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TEXAS. 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST...AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WEAK AND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING FROM ROUGHLY TAMPA TO TAMPICO. MEANWHILE A MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE WILL EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...AND SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALMOST IDENTICAL SHOWING LOW PRES OFF PANAMA CITY BY LATE WED. THE SREF ALONG WITH GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR SOUTHERLY GALES NEAR THIS LOW...BUT WINDS TO 30 KT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT SEEM PLAUSIBLE OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF LATE WED. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NE WED NIGHT...WITH THE RE- ENERGIZED TRAILING FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF THROUGH LATE THU. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FRI OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH STATES ALLOWING FRESH EASTERN FLOW THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND A 1007 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A 0130 UTC RAPIDSCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS NEAR 11 FT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...PULSING AGAIN TO GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING THE TRADES TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TRADES ALONG WITH MIXED N AND E SWELL CONTINUE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...PUSHING THROUGH SOME OF THE ATLC PASSAGES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE TRADES AND ACCOMPANYING SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE SUPPORTING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN TO THE NORTH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE THEN BLENDED GFS WITH ECMWF. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MED CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 30N IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST S OF 22N...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW N OF 22N. BUOYS S OF 24N SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND E SWELL. THE FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST TODAY...REACHING FROM 31N75W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...THEN DIMINISH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRES WILL FROM ALONG THE STALLING FRONT NEAR 31N75W THEN SHIFT NE OF THE AREA. DEEPER LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF BY LATE WED...AND SHIFT NE THROUGH THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WED NIGHT AND OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING SOUTHERLY GALES AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF 73W WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA THROUGH THU WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. THE FRONT SLOWS FROM 31N75W TO SE FLORIDA THU...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TO ROUGHLY 24N. THE FRONTS MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE CONSISTENT AND CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS AND CONTINUES TO BE THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TUE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.