000 AGXX40 KNHC 200800 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. STRONG SE RETURN FLOW IS NOTED THIS MORNING OVER THE NE GULF...ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT EXITED THE AREA LAST EVENING. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH TONIGHT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND THE BUILDING HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND ALSO WAVE HEIGHTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE LOW PRES LIFTS NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER GFS AND WEAKER UKMET IN TERMS OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SREF INDICATES A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1 NM OR LESS ALONG THE TAMAULIPAS COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS MORE PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL ALONG ROUGHLY 25N BY LATE MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECWMF...INDICATE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES STARTING TUE...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO START TO SAG SOUTHWARD AGAIN ON TUE. LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...THE GFS IS INDICATING A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE BY WED...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN OTHER SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STALLING FRONT REACHES FROM HAITI TO NICARAGUA...ABOUT TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER FRONT REACHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THERE WAS SOME INDICATION WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND FRONT DUE TO THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW 25 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH SHIP CTF67 OFF NORTHERN BELIZE DID INDICATE WINDS TO GALE FORCE AND SEAS TO 11 FT...POSSIBLY DUE TO FUNNELING EFFECTS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE MERGED FRONTS REMAIN STALLED FROM HAITI TO NICARAGUA. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW A PULSE OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STABILIZE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC N OF THE BASIN...ALLOWING WINDS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL PATTERN OF STRONGER WINDS OFF COLOMBIA...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER NIGHT WITH ADDED DRAINAGE EFFECTS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...BUILDING SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH ECWAVE USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 31N61W TO N CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS ABOUT TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER FRONT REACHING FROM 31N63W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BUOY 41047 NEAR 27N71W IS REPORTING SEAS TO 13 FT WITH NW SWELL...ABOUT 3 FT HIGHER THAN THE MWW3 INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...ALLOWING INCREASED NE TO E WINDS S OF 27N THROUGH SAT. THIS DIMINISHES SAT NIGHT...JUST AS SE FLOW INCREASES OFF NE FLORIDA AND NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST LATE SUNDAY...SHIFT EASTWARD BEFORE AND REACHING FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE MON...AND STALLING ALONG 27N THROUGH TUESDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST N OF THE FRONT. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFTING NE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. THE MAIN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER S OF 31N IS THAT THE ECMWF AND UKMET INDICATE WESTERLY FLOW OFF NE FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE ECMWF INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TUE ACCORDINGLY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.