000 AGXX40 KNHC 191816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 116 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THE THIRD BOUNDARY IN THE SERIES... CURRENTLY EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SE GULF WATERS BY THIS EVENING WITH THE WESTERN SEGMENT LOSING IDENTITY. NORTHERLY 20- 25 KT WINDS OVER THE E GULF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TONIGHT AS A N-S ORIENTATED POST-FRONTAL RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT SE-S 20-25 KT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW WATERS W OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ON FRI WITH THESE E-SE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF...THEN FURTHER INCREASING TO 25-30 KT BRIEFLY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS ON FRI NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT WITH SE 10-15 KT FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...AND E-SE 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS BY LATE SAT NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NW WATERS AROUND MIDDAY ON SUN...THEN ACCELERATE E REACHING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN NIGHT...THEN STALLING ON MON NIGHT FROM TAMPA BAY TO 25N90W TO 18N93W. N-NE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP W OF FRONT ON SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA ON THE MEXICAN COAST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE E REACHING FROM HISPANIOLA TO SE NICARAGUA ON FRI. NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL 20-25 KT WINDS WILL SPREAD E WITH AN EMBEDDED SWATH OF 25-30 KT NNE WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT BETWEEN 75-82W WHICH WILL DRIVE SEA HEIGHTS TO AT LEAST 11 FT NEAR 18N80W TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX SOME ON FRI...EXPECT A NARROW SWATH OF EMBEDDED NE 25-30 KT FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SW TO ABOUT 16N78W. MINIMAL GALE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE E NIGHT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM FRI NIGHT TO SUN NIGHT. FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN INCREASING A STRONG BREEZE ON SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY NE 20-25 KT WINDS DEVELOPING OFF THE NW COAST COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO E CUBA FL WILL PASS BERMUDA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TODAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF HISPANIOLA ON FRI. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP N OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT TO 55W THROUGH EARLY FRI. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N75W TO 27N80W WILL LOSE IDENTITY IN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT. THE POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW IS EXCEPTED TO MAX AT 30 KT TODAY AND EXTEND AS FAR S AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAHAMA CHANNEL. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AROUND A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO E ALONG 27N...WITH GENERALLY NW-N-NE 15-20 KT FLOW EVERYWHERE W OF THE FRONT BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN S OF THE RIDGE ON FRI NIGHT INCREASING THE NE FLOW TO 20-25 KT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING N ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS S OF 28N W OF 65W BY MIDDAY SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SUN AS THE RIDGE RE- ORIENTATES FROM 31N72W TO PORT CANAVERAL BY SUN EVENING WITH SE 20-25 KT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE NW WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE S ON SUN NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON MON ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N73W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON MON NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.