000 AGXX40 KNHC 130744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WIND. 00Z NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVES. INITIALLY...THE MWW3 IS LOW BY APPROXIMATELY 1-3 FT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE EC WAVE AND NWPS ARE BETTER INITIALIZED HERE. PREFER TO USE THE NWPS TO ADJUST SEAS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INCORPORATES THE PREFERRED WIND FIELD WHICH INCLUDES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE 00Z GFS. DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST PATTERN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT LARGE THROUGH MON. WINDS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SMALL AREAS DURING THIS TIME. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE WHEN THE GFS BECOMES FASTER TO BRING A FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MON NIGHT THAN THE ECMWF...AND GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TUE NIGHT. WINDS MORE PERSISTENTLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WILL BE NEAR THE FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING GALES ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BY 00Z TUE NIGHT AND THE ECMWF WAITING 6 MORE HOURS. THE GFS TIMING WITH THE COLD FRONT IS A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND FASTER UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GALES... 30 PERCENT...AT 18Z TUE. THIS IS EVEN EARLIER THAN THE 0PERATIONAL RUN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A NUMBER OF MEMBERS ARE EVEN FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS. THE APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WIND. 00Z NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVES. LARGE N SWELLS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES IN THE NE CARIBBEAN TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THE NWPS AND EC WAVE SHOW LARGER SEAS INITIALLY HERE THAN THE MWW3. THEIR SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED WITH THIS SWELL. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES S INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO N WINDS WILL ALSO FUNNEL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA SUN AND MON BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT. WINDS MAY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA MON AND TUE MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE AS STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS FRONT SHOULD JUST SKIRT THE N PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WITH THE GFS PREFERRED OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CONSIDERING IT IS THE HIGHEST RESOLUTION FORECAST OVER THE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS ARE ASSISTED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS...THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. THE NWPS WAVES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN THAN THE MWW3. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PREFERRED STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S OF HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGES AND IN THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH THE ATLC SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WINDS. 00Z NWPS AND EC WAVE USED TO ADJUST WAVES. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER WATERS N OF 28N FROM EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUN AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS SHOULD HAVE AN EDGE HERE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE BEFORE PASSING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST TUE AROUND SUNSET. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF CAP WINDS AT 30 KT AT THIS TIME...YET THEIR WAVE MODELS SHOW HIGHER SEAS HERE. THE NWPS IS LIKELY TOO LOW WITH WAVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE NEAR 31N75W BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE EC WAVE WAS USED TO BUMP UP SEAS AT THIS TIME. THE GALE WINDS IN THE GFS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEFS WHICH SHOWS A CHANCE OF GALES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 12Z TUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND REACHING AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT LATE TUE NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.