000 AGXX40 KNHC 051829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 129 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES THAT WAS LOCATED IN THE NE GULF HAS MOVED NE OF THE AREA WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF NEAR 21N93W. RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO 93W WHILE BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 7-10 FT SEAS WHICH IS 3-4 FT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST MWW3 GUIDANCE. THIS FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL LINGER IN THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 8 FT THROUGH SAT MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY SAT MORNING ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW IN THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF AND 2-4 FT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN MORNING. MEANWHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE FORM A TROUGH WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE S CENTRAL GULF BY SUN MORNING AND WILL EXTEND FROM N TO S ALONG 90W BY MON MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF MON MORNING SHIFTING THE FRONTAL REMNANTS BACK OFF TO THE SE BY MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NW GULF MON NIGHT...SHIFTING TO OVER THE CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR MODERATE RETURN FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE FORCE WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE SCATTEROMETER DATA SAMPLED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS STILL IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE STILL UP TO 7-10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN WILL DIMINISH AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN NOW WITH A PARENT COLD FRONT NOT FAR BEHIND. THAT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT AND SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 7-9 FT IN AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS FRI WHERE IT WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH THROUGH SUN MORNING...LINGERING THROUGH MON MORNING. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUE MERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TUE. THE NEW FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO ACROSS JAMAICA TO 17N88W TUE EVENING...THEN FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY WED MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN W OF 70W ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHIFTING TO SE TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS OF 5-7 FT (HIGHEST S OF 12N) WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN... THEN WILL BUILD BACK TO 5-7 FT SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS NORTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATES DOWN INTO THE WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ELONGATED LOW PRES IS IN THE NW PORTION ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N/28N HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS ZONES AMZ111-113-115 AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOW ARRIVING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS E OF 72W AND 4-7 FT SEAS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA THIS EVENING...FROM 31N70W TO N CENTRAL CUBA FRI MORNING...THEN WILL TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE AS IT REACHES FROM 24N65W TO 21N76W SAT MORNING WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. PERSISTENT NE FETCH WILL MAINTAIN A BAND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT 7-11 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 22N TO 27N FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER SUN EVENING...THEN WILL SHIFT E AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW PORTION. THAT NEXT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N78W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA EARLY AFTERNOON...FROM 31N71W TO N CENTRAL CUBA TUE MORNING...THEN RACING SE AND EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO PUERTO RICO BY WED MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.