000 AGXX40 KNHC 041827 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 127 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES 1011 MB IS MOVING FROM THE W CENTRAL GULF INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF WITH A DEVELOPING FRONT AHEAD OF AND ALSO TRAILING BEHIND IT. RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THAT THERE ARE GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONTAL FEATURES...AND ALSO TO THE E JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE E TONIGHT WITH THE LOW APPROACHING THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR CLEARWATER BEACH BY SUNRISE THU. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TONIGHT AS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW GETS STRETCHED OUT TO THE NE. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT GRADUALLY CLEARS THE ENTIRE BASIN BY THU EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND LOW THU NIGHT BECOMING SITUATED OVER SE GEORGIA FRI EVENING BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF OF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST SAT EVENING ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW IN THE GULF. MEANWHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE NW SAT EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LINGER IN THE S CENTRAL GULF SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF BY LATE MON AFTERNOON HELPING TO PUSH THIS REMNANT BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SE-S THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 13-15 FT NEAR THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND 7-10 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THEREAFTER ALLOWING FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE TRADES OVERALL ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE FAR S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER. MEANWHILE THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU EVENING WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS JUST BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT...THEN WILL VERY SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W-NW THROUGH MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH OR MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS THROUGH MON NIGHT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS OF 5-8 FT (HIGHEST S OF 14N) WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OR FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS...WHILE A DEVELOPING FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO JUST SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...EXCEPT E-SE IN THE NW PORTION. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT UP TO 8 FT N OF 25N E OF 70W. LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THU MORNING. MINIMAL GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LOW WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AMZ111 BEGINNING AT 12 UTC THU... SPREADING INTO AMZ113 AND AMZ115 WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE OF 31N BY THU AFTERNOON WHILE DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THAT COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N72W TO NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA BY THU EVENING... FROM 30N65W TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA FRI MORNING...THEN WILL TRANSITION TO A SHEARLINE AS IT REACHES FROM 24N65W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W SAT MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE N. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH SAT. THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N70W BY SUN MORNING...THEN TO 30N65W BY MON MORNING... DISSIPATING MON NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION. THAT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N76W TO S FLORIDA BY LATE MON NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANYING IT BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO THU. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING THU. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING THU INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING THU NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.