000 AGXX40 KNHC 020838 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 338 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE AND INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT...CURRENTLY REACHING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER TO BRO. OBS BEHIND FRONT SHOW NLY WINDS 25-30 KT ACROSS THE TEXAS WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDINGRAPIDLY. COASTAL TROF HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE OF SW GULF COAST...WHILE S TO SW FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE SE OF FRONT...WITH OB INDICATING WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO AROUND 15 KT ACROSS NE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE 6-8 FT AND FALLING. THE COLD FRONT WILL RACE SE THROUGH THIS EVENING...REACHING FROM EXTREME S FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF NEAR 21N96W...WHERE A WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG NLY FLOW TO SPILL DOWN THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH S OF VERACRUZ. MODELS SHOW BROAD AREA OF 25-30 KT N TO NE WINDS N OF FRONT TODAY GENERALLY W OF 92W...WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF GALES S OF 22.5N THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING S ALONG THE COAST TO VERACRUZ THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING AROUND 06Z TUE. FRONT WILL MOVE E OF FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT BUT BECOME STRUNG OUT E-W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL AND SINK SLOWLY S TO ALONG ABOUT 22N BY TUE EVENING...ACROSS NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODEL IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THIS POINT BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG FRONT IN SW GULF IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD TUE AND WED ACROSS THE W GULF...WITH FRONTAL REMNANTS LIFTING N AS WARM FRONT ACROSS SE PORTIONS. ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE PAST FEW DAYS IN SPINNING UP A LOW CENTER ALONG THIS WAVE AND THEN MOVING IT RATHER QUICKLY NE THEN E ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE GULF AND THEN NE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLC WED NIGHT-THU. GFS ALLOWS SOME LLVL VORT TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA IN THIS SAME MANNER...BUT MAINTAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM STRUNG OUT ACROSS NRN GULF BY THU MORNING BEFORE LLVL ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO NE DURING THE DAY THU. UKMET IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...ALTHOUGH IT HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTING NE OUT OF GULF THU...WITH EC MEAN SHOWING A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAN GFS. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF ECMWF AND FAST THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED CLOSER...AND GFS INCHING IN THAT DIRECTION PAST 48 HOURS...I HAVE A 50-50 BLEND OF GFS-ECMWF ACROSS THE GULF FOR THIS SCENARIO BUT STILL ALLOW FOR RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF AND FRESHENING NLY WINDS AFTER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT THU-FRI. LOOK FOR CONTINUED FLUX IN THIS FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS ATLC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT S TOWARDS THE N COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AND TRANSITIONING TO SHEAR LINE. OLD FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF IT NOW EXTENDS W-SW ACROSS CENTRAL LEEWARDS. NE TO E WINDS HAVE BUILT IN BEHIND BOTH BOUNDARIES AND EXTEND FROM N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WWD TO S OF MONA PASSAGE. SFC HIGH NEARING BERMUDA AND DUE N OF PUERTO RICO ALLOWING FOR TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS...WHERE 25 KT TRADES EXTEND NWD TO OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA...AND NOCTURNAL MAX OFF OF COLOMBIA IS CURRENTLY AT MINIMAL GALE. MODERATE WINDS VEERING SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. ATLC HIGH TO SHIFT E TODAY AND PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NE PORTIONS AND LEEWARDS TO DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON...WHILE COLD FRONT REACHES STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN LAYS DOWN E TO W ALONG 22N AND YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE EVENING. AS HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BUILD OFF OF THE SE U.S. TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WILL BE REINFORCED AND MAINTAIN NOCTURNAL PULSING TO GALES OFF OF COLOMBIA. FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO PENETRATE MUCH INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE NIGHT-WED BEFORE IT LIFTS N IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW IN GULF. OTHERWISE...LARGE NW TO N SWELL WILL INVADE THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND NE CARIB PASSAGES TODAY WITH THIS SWELL FADING BY WED. WW3 STILL 1-3 FT LOW ACROSS THE ATLC N OF NE CARIB AND NWPS AN IMPROVEMENT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE SE WATERS AND WEAKENING INTO A SHEAR LINE AS IT APPROACHES N COAST OF PUERTO RICO THEN EXTENDS W INTO N COAST OF DOM REP. 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29.5N67W WILL SHIFT E TODAY WITH PRES GRADIENT INDUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WITHIN 120 NM N OF FRONT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANTICYLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH YIELDING FRESHENING SE TO S WINDS THROUGH BAHAMAS AND ACROSS FL COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING TO 25-30 KT N OF 29N ATTM...WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 8 FT. MODELS FORECAST S TO SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS MORNING NW WATERS AND INCREASE TO 30-40 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT ENTERS W ATLC WATERS THEN SHIFTS TO 31N74W TO PALM BEACH BY 00Z THIS EVENING WITH NWLY GALES BEHIND FRONT N OF 29N. THE POST FRONTAL NW FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 20-30 KT EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY GALE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO 09-12Z. OTHERWISE A SW-W-NW 20-30 KT WIND SHIFT EXPECTED N OF 27N ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT NWLY SWELL FORECAST BEHIND FRONT THAT WILL INVADE REGIONAL WATERS. NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON THU BUT SPECIFICS NOT CLEAR ATTM AS THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS WITH THIS...AND HAVE BLENDED IN CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF ECMWF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. NW SWELL CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AREA WATERS THIS MORNING STILL 1-3 FT HIGHER THAN WW3 ACROSS SE PORTIONS...AND EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5-8 FT SWELL REACHING THE NE CARIB ISLANDS TODAY. ECWAVE DID A GOOD JOB WITH THIS FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.