000 AGXX40 KNHC 220621 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 121 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED CONFIDENCE. A N TO S TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TODAY INSTEAD OF E AS PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED. ADDITIONALLY THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A NE-E 25-20 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS EARLY TODAY. THIS STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE THE E-SE FLOW TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE TO NEAR 28N95W THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE TONIGHT AND INLAND THE FL PANHANDLE LATE FRI. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND FRI ACCOMPANIED BY 20-23 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...EXCEPT MINIMAL 30-35 KT GALE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR SW GULF. NW 20-25 KT POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS ON FRI NIGHT WITH A LINE OF SCT TS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE FAR SE GULF ON SAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RIDGE FROM 25N96W TO THE FL STRAITS ON SUN WITH ANTICYCONIC 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTATED FROM SE TX TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON MON WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING E-SE ACROSS THE NE GULF TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND ACCOMPANIED BY NW 15-20 KT WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH 7-11 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE-E 15 KT TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS FORECAST FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING 5-10 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SAT...AND REACHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA ON SUN. NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN BY LATE SAT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING N-NE 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 27N BETWEEN 71-74W AND SPLITS A NE-SW RIDGE ACROSS THE NE WATERS FROM A W-E RIDGE EXTENDING OFF THE FL COAST ALONG 28N. THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY PUSHING THE TROUGH EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING DIFFUSE TONIGHT. THE RIDGE THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS NE SETTING UP SE RETURN FLOW N OF THE BAHAMAS WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT EARLY FRI... THEN CLOCK TO THE S AT 20-25 KT LATE FRI. A SURFACE LOW WILL RACE NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS ON FRI NIGHT WITH S-SW 20-30 KT FLOW DEVELOPING N OF 27N W OF 74W AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT THE SE GA COAST AROUND SUNRISE SAT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY ON SAT AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA SAT EVENING...AND NEARLY STALL FROM 31N58W TO E CUBA ON SUN NIGHT. BY THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW 20-30 KT WIND SHIFT TO THE N OF 27N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.