000 AGXX40 KNHC 200612 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 112 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE FORMING NEAR 24.5N87W ALONG A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STILL EXPECT THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH TO BECOME ORIENTATED N-S ACROSS CENTRAL WATERS TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD SE FROM THE TX COAST LATER TODAY...AND BEGIN TO PUSH THE TROUGH E AGAIN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF ON WED NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WED WHEN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH DISSECTS THE GULF FROM NW TO SE. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL WATERS ON THU...THEN TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF MIDDAY ON FRI...AND PASS SE OF THE AREA EARLY SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ON THU INCREASING THE ENE FLOW TO 20-30 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH AND SPREADING S AND SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THU. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS...BUT NOT POSTING A POSSIBLE WARNING YET. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON FRI WITH MOSTLY 10-15 NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT 15-20 KT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SAT MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH 7-11 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY EACH MORNING THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND EASTERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE 15-20 KT FLOW CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 74-81W WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING TO E-SE AT 10-15 KT AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT THEN PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. EXPECT NE-E 10-15 KT FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THU BEHIND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT...THEN 5-10 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRI-SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF A FRONTS IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM 20-22N BETWEEN 60-66W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO NE CUBA WILL CONTINUE SE TODAY ITS SOUTHERN SEGMENT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SAME TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE LEEWARDS ON WED. A SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FL E COAST NEAR 29N81W WILL SHIFT ENE TODAY REACHING NEAR 29N70W THIS EVENING WITH ANTICYCLONIC 5-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 65W. THE S-SW FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE GA COAST EARLY WED. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA THU AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SEGMENT WILL CONTINUE E PASSING E OF 55W ON SAT. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT WILL DRIFT W ON FRI. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH JUST OFF THE NE FL COAST ON FRI...THIS IS LIKELY THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR PORT CANAVERAL AND MOVE NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRI WITH ONLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEN A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 31N79W ON SAT WHICH WILL DRAG A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AS THE LOW MOVES NE ON SAT AFTERNOON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.