000 AGXX40 KNHC 190554 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1254 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT FRONT EXTENDS W FROM S FL TO EXTREME NE MEXICO WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A TROUGH TRAILING THE FRONT BY ABOUT 150 NM. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT OUR CURRENT WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP OVER THE SE GULF AND TRANSITION TO A N-S ORIENTATED TROUGH ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING. A NE-SW RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NE GULF...AND EASTERLY 15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY N ALONG ABOUT 90W ON TUE. THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSITION THE TROUGH TO A WEAK COLD FRONT ON TUE NIGHT...AND PUSH IT THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ON WED. NE-E 15-20 KT FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE NW GULF EARLY WED NIGHT AND NE-E 10-15 KT FLOW ELSEWHERE. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL WATERS ON THU...THEN TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY FRI...AND PASS SE OF THE AREA EARLY SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY THU INCREASING THE ENE FLOW TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH AND SPREAD SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THU...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO N-NE AT 20-30 KT W OF THE TRANSITIONING COLD FRONT ON THU NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON FRI WITH ONLY 10-15 NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY SAT MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH 7-11 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY EACH MORNING THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND EASTERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY INCREASING THE NE FLOW TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 16N W OF 78W THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON TUE THROUGH FRI WITH THE FLOW BECOMING E-SE 10-15 KT LATE TUE AND 5-10 KT ON WED-FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF TWO FRONTS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM 20-24N BETWEEN 55-67W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO THE FL STRAITS WILL RACE E ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION STILL IN THE AREA W OF 55W EARLY TUE. THE FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTION BY LATE WED. SOUTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM E OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT NE OF 31N THIS EVENING. THE POST FRONTAL NW FLOW IS OBSERVED AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE FRONT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS ALSO SHIFTING N OF 31N BY THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OFF THE FL COAST ALONG 28.5N TONIGHT...REACHING NEAR 29N70W ON TUE EVENING WITH ANTICYCLONIC 5-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 65W. THE S-SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS EARLY TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY WED WHICH SHOULD REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NW CUBA THU AFTERNOON...THEN STALL AND DRIFT NW ON FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.