000
AGXX40 KNHC 140731
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
231 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW GULF W OF
THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE
FRONT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE
IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR SW WATERS W OF THE FRONT...4-6 FT
OVER THE NW WATERS...1-3 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS...AND 2-4 FT
OVER THE SW GULF E OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THU. THIS
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...MOVING SE OF THE
AREA BY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILED N OF THE AREA HAS STARTED TO
RETREAT EASTWARD. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG
WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 9-12 FT OVER
THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EASTWARD
TODAY. THIS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTANT WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. BY FRI..WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT OVER THESE WATERS BY SAT. 
     
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...8-9 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS E OF
THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THU
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS...MOVING SE OF THE AREA SAT. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW WATERS SUN. THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FRONTS AND HELP TO STRENGTHEN WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.