000 AGXX40 KNHC 101851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 151 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM INLAND TEXAS JUST W OF GALVESTON S TO 25N97W AND SE TO 19N95W LOW PRES OF 1020 MB HAS RECENTLY FORMED ON THE TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW WATERS JUST E OF BROWNSVILLE...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE ARKANSAS AND KENTUCKY EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND LOW S OF 26.5N...AND FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS W OF TROUGH FROM 26.5N TO 28N. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL LIFT NNE AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND THE COAST IN THE GENERALLY VICINITY OF SW LOUISIANA AND FAR NE TEXAS SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS...THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PRESENTLY W OF THE TROUGH AND LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLACKEN ALLOWING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH. SEAS ARE IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE W OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE NW WATERS. ELSEWHERE W OF 90W SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE PREVAIL...SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE SE WATERS...AND SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE NE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW GULF MON...AND REACH FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF TUE AND STALL. HIGH PRES BEHIND IT WILL BEGIN TO BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES TUE NIGHT LEADING TO THE FRONT AGAIN ADVANCING ACROSS THE GULF AS A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THU...AND TO JUST SE OF THE GULF BY THU NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE WILL INCREASE THE NLY WINDS TO THE MOSTLY FRESH CATEGORY ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT EXCEPT TO 10 FT IN THE SW GULF BY THU AFTERNOON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE FORCE WINDS EARLIER NOTED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE JUST RECENTLY DECREASED TO 30 KT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 9 TO 13 FT RANGE IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 7-9 FT IN NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO GALE WARNING FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TONIGHT INTO SUN AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN. A LARGE FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTERLY SWELLS INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 13 FT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES WEAKENING STATIONARY SW TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE WINDS W OF THE FRONT...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS E OF THE FRONT...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT IN N SWELLS OVER THE SE WATERS...6-8 FT OVER THE NE WATERS...4-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE WHILE THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THEN E OF THE AREA BY SAT NIGHT. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS MON...AND MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK N WED INTO THU. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT GENTLE N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.