000 AGXX40 KNHC 051850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR VENICE FLORIDA TO 22N91W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS FUNNELING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...SUPPORTING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. THE VERY EDGE OF AN EARLIER OVERNIGHT PASS AROUND 05/0326 UTC SHOWED A 40 KT WIND BARB IN THE VICINITY OF 20N96W. OTHERWISE...THE PASS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NE GULF INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE RANGING FROM 12 TO 20 FT ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF...AND 8 TO 12 ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THROUGH TUE...THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NE AGAINST A BLOCKING DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CUBA. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TRANSITIONING STATIONARY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE NE AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS A BIT MORE SE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND BECOMES STATIONARY OVERNIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW GULF. GALE WARNINGS END OFF VERACRUZ TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE TUE. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING INTO THE BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR UKMET...BUT GIVEN THE COLDER NATURE OF THE NEXT AIRMASS THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AIRMASS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FROM WED NIGHT IN ZONE GMZ017 AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO ZONE GMZ023 THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD REACHING AT LEAST 15 FT OFF VERACRUZ THU. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH LATE THU INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE FRESH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF LATE FRI INTO SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF 17N E OF 82W AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES. AN EARLIER PASS AROUND 05/1508 UTC WENT DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MAXIMUM WIND OF GALE FORCE IN THE VICINITY OF 12N76W. SEVERAL ALTIMETER PASSES ALSO PASSED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR THE GALE AREA AND TO THE WEST INDICATING SEAS RANGING FROM 8-10 FT ALONG 16N/17N...REACHING 12-14 FT S OF 15N. MAXIMUM SEAS REACHED 17 FT DOWNWIND OF THE MAXIMUM WIND IN THE VICINITY OF 11N77W. BUOYS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N HAVE HELD A RANGE OF 9 TO 11 FT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WITH 9 TO 12 FT ARE ALSO NOTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 45W. STRONG HIGH PRES E OF BERMUDA IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N76W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA CONTINUES SWEEPING EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA BY WED...THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE WARNING FORCE OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN EARLY THU...THEN STALL THU NIGHT AND DISSIPATE INTO FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N53W TO 27N75W CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N76W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO BECOME MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH S OF 25N AS THE OVERALL PRES GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N69W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE S GEORGIA COAST BY LATE WED AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NE WINDS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS NEAR 30N W OF 77W BY WED NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS THE GALE WARNINGS REMAINING N OF 30N...BUT GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS IN THAT AREA...WINDS TO GALE FORCE MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE NEAR 30N THROUGH EARLY THU. SEAS BUILD 9 TO 15 FT BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THU. THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI...BUT LINGERING NW SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 8 TO 12 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.