000 AGXX40 KNHC 041852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 152 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND SW GULF THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO JUST SOUTH OF TUXPAN MEXICO. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG AND OCCASIONAL NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS EAST OF THE APPROACHING FRONT IN MODERATE SE WINDS...AND SEAS 6 TO 9 FT WEST OF THE FRONT...BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO A RANGE 8 TO 12 OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 20 FT OFF OF VERACRUZ BY EARLY MON. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING S-SW TO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS IS LIFTING NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO STALL FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MON...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TUE. WINDS AND SEAS IN MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY THROUGH MON...WITH WINDS AND SEAS OFF VERACRUZ FINALLY DIMINISHING TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS PLUNGING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AIRMASS WILL MODIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WED...BUT STILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH LATE WED. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS TO FUNNEL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE GFS AND GFS PARALLEL ALONG WITH THE ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE WARNINGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN CONTRAST TO THE SOMEWHAT WEAKER UKMET. GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH PRES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GALE WARNINGS POSSIBLE FOR THIS TIME WED NIGHT AND THU FOR VERACRUZ AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TAMAULIPAS. IN ADDITION...STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL COVER THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF 18N E OF 83W AS INDICATED BY EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASSES. THE EDGE OF THE WESTERN SWATH OF THE 04/1436 UTC PASS NEAR 12N AND 78W/79W SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS WITH FORECAST GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. BUOYS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N INDICATED SEAS REACHING 9 TO 12 FT...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE FETCH... DURATION...AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA...SEAS THERE MAY BE AS HIGH AS 20-22 FT. THE BUOY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS INDICATING SEAS TO 9 FT...LIKELY IN E TO SE SWELL. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WITH 9 TO 12 FT ARE ALSO NOTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 50W. STRONG 1033 MB HIGH PRES SE OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE TRADE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MON. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA BY MID WEEK...THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE GULF THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THU...THEN STALL THU NIGHT AND DISSIPATE INTO FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1033 MB BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 25N IN SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT PASSES FROM 04/1252 UTC AND 04/1346 UTC. BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT... AND REACH FROM 31N65W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE MON BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE TUE. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AT LEAST S OF 22N THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONGER SECOND FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SE FOLLOWED BY STRONG N TO NE WINDS THU...BEFORE STALLING ALONG ROUGHLY 25N FRI. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN S OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TUE. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.