000 AGXX40 KNHC 020847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 347 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH WEAK ELONGATED LOW PRES ACROSS NW PORTIONS JUST OFFSHORE OF TEXAS COAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SSW ACROSS MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS...AND WARM FRONT SNAKING E THEN SE FROM LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS AND INTO FLORIDA NEAR SARASOTA AREA...WHILE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW SWD TO COAST ALONG ABOUT 20N. THIS POSITION IS A RELOCATION OF PREVIOUS WARM FRONTAL ANALYSIS AND WAS AIDED IN OUR FIRST GUESS BY RECENT 03Z ASCAT PASSES...SHOWING E-SE WINDS AROUND 20 KT N OF THE WARM FRONT W OF 87W...WHERE SEAS AREA LIKELY 6-7 FT WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO 8 FT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM LIFTING LOW AND WARM FRONT NORTHWARD AND INLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GRADIENT WINDS N OF WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS RIDGE ACROSS GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS E INTO SW N ATLC AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT INTO SAT. RETURN FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS SAT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NE OUT OF SW U.S. THIS WEEKEND...WITH EURO MODELS STILL SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE SW OF GFS. OLD BOUNDARY TO BE REINFORCED ACROSS TEXAS COAST EARLY SAT AND MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS N AND W PORTIONS SAT AND SAT NIGHT REACHING FROM MOBILE BAY TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG HIGH AND CAA BUILDS SSE FROM NRN PLAINS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS SUN TO FORCE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT...AND INCREASE TO GALES ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS S OF 22N SUN EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT. GALE WARNINGS SUGGESTED TO BEGIN IN OROGRAPHIC FORCING OFF VERACRUZ AND THEN EXPAND S INTO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GFS PARALLEL SUGGESTING GALES TO 40 KT OFF OF VERACRUZ SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 9 TO 13 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND WITH PEAK OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF BUILD TO 12 TO 17 FT S OF 21N W OF 94W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS PARALLEL. STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO PRODUCE THE STRONGEST WIND AND WAVE EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE PAST YEAR. RECENT 03Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED SOLID 25 KT WINDS EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 16N...WHILE 30-34 KT WINDS EXTENDED TO 13.5N. BUOY 42058 AT 15N CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING AT 10-11 FT AND ABOUT 1 FT LOW OF WW3. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND BUILD INTO THE SW N ATLC TODAY TO MAINTAIN A STRONG GRADIENT THROUGH SAT...WITH NEW HIGH THEN PINCHING OFF JUST SW OF BERMUDA AND DRIFTING SE AROUND 1029-1033 MB THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THIS TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT FURTHER AND EXPAND STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH 30 KT FLOW SUGGESTED TO EXTEND N TO 17N AND NOCTURNAL PEAK WINDS LIKELY REACHING 40-45 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT NIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS QUICKLY NE WHILE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SW N ATLC TO MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF STRONG TO GALE WARNING FORCE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND LARGE WAVE FIELD W OF 70W. PEAK SEAS EXPECTED 20 TO 21 FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF COLOMBIA JET SUN MORNING. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...THE STRENGTHENING CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND CREATE PERSISTENT LONG ENE-WSW FETCH ACROSS REGION WHICH WILL BUILD SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO RANGE OF 10-12 FT IMMEDIATELY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SAT THROUGH MON...AND WRAP WWD AROUND NE CARIB ARCHIPELAGO. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. ATLC RIDGE HAS SHIFTED INTO EAST ATLC AS WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC SW TO NEAR 26N75W. REMNANTS OF WRN END OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS FLORIDA AND INVERTED TROUGHING THAT HAS DEVELOPED THERE ARE CURRENTLY BEING ANALYZED AS A WARM FRONT FROM GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NE ACROSS N FL COASTAL WATERS. RECENT 03Z ASCAT PASSES DEPICTED SE WINDS NEAR 20 KT ACROSS FAR NW BAHAMAS AND EXTENDING N TO OFFSHORE OF CANAVERAL...WHERE SEAS ARE 6-7 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SAT WITH PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN MID-ATLC RIDGE AND AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. S-SW FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO 30N SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT NORTH OF 31N MON MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NE AND STRENGTHENS...WITH SIGNIFICANT AREAS TO 25 KT TO DEVELOP S OF 22N IN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED ZONES N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. WINDS ACCELERATING THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG NE COAST OF CUBA COULD MAXIMIZE 25-30 KT TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-10 FT...AND LARGE AREA OF 9-11 FT SEAS IN E-NE WIND SWELL SPREADING ACROSS SE WATERS SAT THROUGH SUN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY MON...AND STALL ACROSS NW PORTIONS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.