000 AGXX40 KNHC 011901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 201 PM EST THU JAN 1 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST OF GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF GALVESTON BAY THEN SOUTHWARD TO A WEAK 1019 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS N OF 26N IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND MODERATE NW WINDS W OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM LIFTING LOW NORTHWARD AS STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES WARM FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GRADIENT WINDS BOTH TO THE E AND SW OF LOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FRI NIGHT...AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS SAT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NE OUT OF SW U.S. THIS WEEKEND...WITH EURO MODELS STILL SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE SW OF GFS. FRONT TO MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST AND MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS N AND W PORTIONS SAT AND SAT NIGHT REACHING FROM MOBILE BAY TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. ANOTHER STRONG HIGH AND CAA BUILDS SSE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS SUN AND FORCE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT... INCREASING TO GALE WARNINGS ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. GALE WARNINGS SUGGESTED TO BEGIN IN OROGRAPHIC FORCING OFF VERACRUZ AND THEN EXPAND SW INTO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 9 TO 13 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND WITH PEAK OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF BUILD TO 12 TO 17 FT S OF 21N W OF 94W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST OF GFS PARALLEL. WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO PRODUCE THE STRONGEST WIND AND SEA EVENT CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE PAST YEAR. AN EARLIER MORNING 01/1358 UTC ASCAT PASS CAUGHT THE VERY EDGE OF THE GALE WARNING AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 12N74W THAT SHOWED WINDS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 12-16 FT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND BUILDING INTO THE SW N ATLC OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AND MAINTAIN A STRONG GRADIENT THROUGH SAT...WITH NEW HIGH THEN PINCHING OFF W OF BERMUDA AND DRIFTING SE AROUND 1029-1033 MB THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THIS TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT FURTHER AND EXPAND STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH 30 KT FLOW SUGGESTED TO EXTEND N TO 17N AND NOCTURNAL PEAK WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT NIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS QUICKLY NE WHILE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SW N ATLC TO MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF STRONG TO GALE WARNING FORCE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND LARGE WAVE FIELD W OF 70W. PEAK SEAS EXPECTED 20 TO POSSIBLY 21 FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF COLOMBIA JET SUN MORNING. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...THE STRENGTHENING CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND CREATE PERSISTENT LONG ENE-WSW FETCH ACROSS REGION WHICH WILL BUILD SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO RANGE OF 10-12 FT IMMEDIATELY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SAT THROUGH MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST OF GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES SHIFTING EASTWARD AS WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS FROM 27N65W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH JUST A FEW DEGREES TO THE NE SINKING SE ACROSS NE PORTIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...E-W RIDGE ACROSS THE SE CONUS WILL BUILD E-SE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS SE FLORIDA AND EXTENDS NNE TO OFFSHORE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SAT WITH GRADIENT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN MID-ATLC RIDGE AND STRONG AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. S-SW FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL SEEP SOUTH TO 30N EARLY SUN MORNING AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH OF 31N BY EARLY MON AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PINCHES W OF BERMUDA THEN DRIFTS SE AND STRENGTHENS. WINDS AND SEAS TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS SRN WATERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS HIGH PREVAILS...WITH SIGNIFICANT AREAS TO 25 KT TO DEVELOP S OF 22N IN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED ZONES N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. WINDS ACCELERATING THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG NE COAST OF CUBA COULD MAXIMIZE 25-30 KT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-10 FT...AND LARGE AREA OF 9-11 FT SEAS IN E-NE WIND SWELL SPREADING ACROSS SE WATERS SAT THROUGH SUN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY MON...AND STALL ACROSS NW PORTIONS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO TUE NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.