000 AGXX40 KNHC 300844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 344 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. STATIONARY FRONT RELOCATED FROM BIG BEND REGION TO CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE...AS UPPER FLOW IS NOW PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF GULF. RECENT OBS AND SCAT PASSES SHOW LARGELY NE TO E WINDS NW OF FRONT LESS THAN 15 KT AND E TO SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS SE OF FRONT. OBS SUGGEST SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT ACROSS MOST OF BASIN AND 3-4 SW PORTIONS W OF FRONT TO VERACRUZ AREA. FRONT TO MEANDER THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING SE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 1050 MB PLUS SFC HIGH ACROSS MONTANA BUILDS SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE U.S. AND SHIFTS SE AS A 1049 MB HIGH OVER KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS TO PUSH PORTION OF FRONT E OF 85W TO THE SE AND INTO W ATLC WATERS...BUT BECOME MORE E TO W ACROSS GULF FROM SARASOTA AREA W-SW TO AROUND 23N95W. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN N OF BOUNDARY TO YIELD BROADENING ZONE OF ENE TO NE WINDS 20 KT TUE NIGHT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WED... MOSTLY W OF 90W. SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD O 7-10 FT W OF 94W WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH WW3 UNDERFORECASTING SLIGHTLY. FRONT TO THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT N AS WARM FRONT THU AS STRONG HIGH PRES WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND SHIFTS E INTO SE U.S. AND OLD N-S PORTION OF FRONT ACROSS SW PORTIONS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED WITH POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG N END OF TROUGH OFFSHORE OF UPPER MEXICAN COAST. WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS N PORTIONS LATE THU INTO FRI AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N INTO N GULF COASTAL ZONE AND MODERATE SELY RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS MOST OF GULF. THERE IS A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR NLY WINDS W OF TROUGH AND DEVELOPING LOW TO REACH 30 KT WED NIGHT- THU MORNING AS STRONG RIDGING PREVAILS FROM OK TO SE MEXICO. 00Z GFS NOT SHOWING THIS 30 KT WIND...BUT IS DEPICTED BY PARALLEL RUN OF GFS AS WELL AS EURO MODELS. GLOBAL MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THU WITH CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SW U.S. AND SHIFTING EWD END OF WEEK...BUT WITH EURO MODELS SLOWER AND FEEL THEY ARE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO BETTER. THEREFORE PREFER THE TIMING OF ECMWF FRONTAL ARRIVAL INTO NW GULF SAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES SW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 28-29N ACROSS W CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN WEAKLY INTO SE GULF OF MEXICO. PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 15N E OF 78W ATTM WITH RECENT 02-03Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWING WINDS 25 KT S OF 13N OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND SHOULD BE PRESENTLY INCREASING TO 30 KT AND 10-11 FT THERE. ALTHOUGH ATLC RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN NEXT FEW DAYS...PARALLEL RUN OF GFS SHOWING WINDS BRIEFLY PULSING TO GALE FORCE OFF OF COLOMBIA NEXT FEW NIGHTS...BEFORE GALES LINGER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT THERE STARTING THU NIGHT. RIDGING TO BUILD OFF OF SE U.S. AND INTO SW N ATLC THU THROUGH FRI AND INDUCE STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB FOR SIGNIFICANT GALE EVENT OFF OF COLOMBIA AND SEAS BUILDING 12-18 FT BY SAT MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING ACROSS E AND NE CARIB THROUGH SAT. MEANWHILE TO THE E ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...TUTT LOW MOVING WWD ACROSS 50W ATTM IS INDUCING ACTIVE CNVTN ACROSS ALL BUT SW QUADS...AS WELL AS STRONG E TO NE WIND SURGE UNDERNEATH AND TO THE E OF LOW...AIDED BY BROAD ATLC RIDGE. LOW TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WWD NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO TUTT AXIS BY WED-WED NIGHT...WITH LIFT OCCURRING ONLY S OF TUTT AXIS. RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES IN THIS AREA SHOWED WINDS 25-30 KT S OF 11.5N BUT THIS CAN PARTIALLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE CNVTN THERE. WIND SURGE NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT MUCH FURTHER WWD NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT ATLC RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN PRES GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LONG ENE-WSW FETCH ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC WHICH WILL GENERATE BUILDING WIND SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICS REMAINDER OF WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING AGAIN FRI THROUGH WEEKEND AS NEW STRONG HIGH SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL ATLC...AND SEAS ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BUILDING 10-12 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA AS BROAD ATLC RIDGE PREVAILS 28-29N AND EXTENDS INTO SRN FLORIDA. STATIONARY FRONT JUST NW OF AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SE INTO NW PORTIONS TODAY AS VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE U.S. NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAKENING FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS EVENING THEN PUSH SE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS...WHILE WASHING OUT W OF 70W WED AND THU. A BRIEF SHOT OF N TO NE WINDS 20 KT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT ACROSS NW PORTIONS AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OFF E COAST...BUT PRES GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY ABATE AS HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND INVERTED TROFFING DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA E COAST. NEW RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS W CENTRAL ATLC FRI INTO WEEKEND WILL INCREASE PRES GRADIENT SE PORTIONS AND INCREASE TRADES TO AROUND 20 KT S OF 22N BY LATE FRI...THEN FURTHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.