000 AGXX40 KNHC 011917 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 217 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. W ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WWD ALONG 32N ACROSS N GULF STATES AND MAINTAINING STRONG ELY FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS AND SE PORTIONS OF BASIN...WHILE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING TEXAS COAST ATTM. SEVERAL SHIP OBS THIS MORNING REPORTING WINDS 25-30 KT IN STRAITS AND WELL OFFSHORE OF NW COAST OF CUBA...WHILE 42003 HAS JUST RISEN TO 8 FT...WHICH IS JUST N OF WHERE ONE WOULD EXPECT THE MAX SWH ATTM...LIKELY 9-10 FT IN FLORIDA CURRENT. SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE AND OVER W ATLC RIDGE TUE-WED AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND SW LA TUE AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT NW AND INLAND TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SE PORTIONS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUE AS ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NE...ALTHOUGH WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 20 KT THERE AND SE PORTIONS THROUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 1030 MB HIGH JUST NW OF BERMUDA WITH WEAKENING RIDGE EXTENDS W ALONG 32N ACROSS N GULF STATES...AND NE INTO N CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG PRES GRADIENT TO THE S MAINTAINING STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL CARIB AND WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WHICH IS S OF OLD FRONTAL ZONE AND SHEARLINE LINGERING ACROSS ATLC WATERS. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED SOLID 25 KT PERSISTING IN LEE OF CUBA AND OFF NW COAST OF JAMAICA. EARLY MORNING ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED BROAD AREA OF SEAS 10+ OFF OF COLOMBIA WITH MAX TO 14 FT...SUGGESTING GALES OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. 42058 HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING 9-10 FT ALL DAY. HIGH AND RIDGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND SHIFT NE...WITH PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING LATE TUE THROUGH WED. GFS STILL SUGGESTING CHANCE FOR BRIEF WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WED AND THU AS NEW AND WEAKER RIDGE ACROSS SE U.S. DOMINATES THE REGIONAL PATTERN. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DAY 3-5...AS DEEP LAYERED LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC NNE OF P.R. AND NE CARIB. GFS BEGINS TO LIFT THIS LOW OUT TO THE NNE BY SAT...WHILE ECMWF LINGERS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN BEFORE LIFTING VERY SLOWLY OUT TO THE N. ECMWF APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS DURING THIS PERIOD AND HAVE THUS BLENDED IN MUCH MORE ECMWF THAN NORMAL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. GFS ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOPS SFC LOW ACROSS SW CARIB DURING THIS TIME AND HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN ECMWF. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST NW OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDS WWD INTO SE U.S. ALONG 32N...WHILE SHEARLINE IS QUASISTATIONARY FROM NEAR 23N60W TO N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. INDUCED PRES GRADIENT N OF SHEARLINE MAINTAINING STRONG NELY FLOW FROM NEAR 60W TO BAHAMAS AND THROUGH STRAITS OF FL....WHERE SEAS ARE TO 11 POSSIBLY 12 FT E OF BAHAMAS. WINDS GENERALLY NE 15-20 KT S OF THE SHEARLINE AND LESS THAN THAT TO THE E OF THE LEEWARDS IN BROAD LLVL TROFFING. ATLC RIDGE TO BEGIN TO SHIFT NE TONIGHT THROUGH WED...WHILE SHEARLINE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E AS RIDGE SHIFTS...FALLING TO 15-20 KT FROM 70W TO FL PENINSULA BY WED AFTERNOON. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP LAYERED LOW INVOF 60W THU THROUGH SAT. GFS QUICKLY LIFTS LOW OUT TO THE NNE WHILE ECMWF SHOWS SLOWER AND MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPED THROUGH SAT BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY N SUN-MON. NE TO E SWELL GENERATED N OF THIS LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE EXIST IN WIND FIELD. ATTM...ECMWF RESEMBLES ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HAVE BLENDED IN HIGH PERCENTAGE ACROSS ATLC FOR THIS PACKAGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.