000 AGXX40 KNHC 171753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1253 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG COLD FRONT...PRECEDED BY SCT TSTMS...EXTENDS FROM FL PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. CURRENT 30-35 KT GALE CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUE...WITH THE 30-40 KT GALE CONDTIONS OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED END AROUND SUNRISE TUE AS WELL. THE NWPS BUILDS MAX SEAS OF 18 FT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE POST FRONTAL FLOW NLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND VEER TO ESE AT 10-15 KT OVER THE NW GULF BY LATE TUE NIGHT. A N-S RIDGE BUILDS S ALONG 90W ON WED WITH THE SE RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS WED NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SUPPORTING SLY 10-15 KT ON FRI...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 KT ON SAT. EXPECT THE N-NE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS TO CEASE AROUND MIDDAY WED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS...AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THU...WITH ENE 10-15 KT FORECAST ON FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO FRESH TRADES BY MIDDAY TUE. FRESH ELY TRADES/SEAS 5-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO MIXING N AND SE SWELL...ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUPPORTING E 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 58W ON THU-FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON TUE FOLLOWED BY FRESH-STRONG N-NE WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT...AND 10-15 KT CONDITIONS ON THU- FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. SLY 20 KT N OF THE BAHAMAS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO S-SW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT/SEAS 5-8 FT TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE GA COAST AT SUNSET TODAY. THE S- SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT AS THE NW-N FLOW BEHIND FRONT INCREASES TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9 FT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REACHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAHAMA CHANNEL BY MIDDAY TUE...AND SPREADING S TO THE CAY SAL BANK AND FL STRAITS BY SUNSET TUE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NE CUBA AT SUNRISE WED...THEN STALL FROM 31N61W TO 21N75W LATE WED...THEN DRIFT W ON THU REACHING FROM 31N70W TO THE BAHAMA CHANNEL ON FRI. THE NE POST FRONTAL FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO NE 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-6 FT W OF THE FRONT BY EARLY THU...AND 10-15 KT/SEAS 2-4 FT ON FRI. A BAND OF NE 20-25 KT/SEAS TO 8 FT EXPECTED ALONG 28N BETWEEN 70-78W ON SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.