000 AGXX40 KNHC 120730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST WED NOV 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS OFF THE TEXAS COAST INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO JUST SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO BY THIS EVENING...FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO BY LATE THU...THEN STALLING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE FRI. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALES BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF THU AND THU NIGHT. LATEST 00Z GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING GALES STARTING AT 12Z THU MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TAMAULIPAS JUST N OF TAMPICO...THEN ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AS WELL. GIVEN THE ADVECTION OF COLD AIR OVER RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS AND THE STRONG HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDING OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO...WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY. OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS MODIFIED TO START GALE WINDS OFF TAMAULIPAS BY 12Z ON THU. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FT BY THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING PER NWPS OUTPUT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER MID WEEK WITH 3 TO 6 FT SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT INDICATING MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF SAT. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET INDICATE A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER COASTAL TEXAS SHIFTING E ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SAT...WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SUN WITH A REPEAT OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FAR NW GULF. THIS MAY HERALD ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES OVER THE WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3-6 FT...HIGHEST E OF 72W. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADES WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N70W TO EASTERN CUBA. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDED LOW PRES N OF THE AREA MOVING TO THE NE. EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA ON THE FAR PERIPHERY OF THE OCCLUDED LOW. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WEAKENS FURTHER AND SHIFTS NE. BUOYS N OF 27N INDICATED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BUT ARE SUBSIDING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 27N AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT E THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THU FROM 31N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NE. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA BY LATE TODAY...REACHING FROM 31N75W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE THU...AND FROM 31N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N STARTING LATE FRI BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG ROUGHLY 25N BY SAT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E FLOW...BECOMING SE N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE SUN. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THU. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.