000 AGXX40 KNHC 091900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE STARTING MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS S OF 24N W OF 91W AND NW OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT JUST OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. STATION SACV4 IN SACRIFICE ISLAND MEXICO LOCATED NEAR 19N96W WAS REPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS THIS MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH GULF STATES WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND MERGES WITH THE PRIMARY FRONT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SE OF THE GULF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NW GULF ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF REGION TONIGHT INTO MON. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 6 FT OFF THE TEXAS AND TAMAULIPAS COASTS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST STRONG NLY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER THE NW AND W CENTRAL GULF BY THU WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT. WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE. FOR NOW THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS REACHING 30 KT UNTIL COMPUTER MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA AND REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS OPENED INTO A TROUGH AND IS FINALLY LIFTING TO THE N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD. CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN N OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-6 FT. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 29N79W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA BEHIND THE LOW/FRONT WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT. THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE REACHING A POSITION NEAR 28N78W LATE TODAY WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE NW WATERS AS THE LOW PRES MOVES N OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N78W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL CUBA. WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRES WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR FRESH TRADES S OF 22N W OF 70W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.