000 AGXX40 KNHC 280530 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FROM WED-SAT. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING OF FRONTS. AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO S-CENTRAL LA. SLY 10-15 KT FLOW CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED AROUND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY FROM 27N94W TO 29N92W ON WED. THIS TROUGH IS LIKELY THE MODELS DEPICTING THE WEAK WESTERN SEGMENT OF A FRONT THAT WILL PASS INITIALLY THROUGH ONLY THE NE GULF. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO 5-10 KT FROM THE N-NE ON WED NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME NE AT 10-15 KT ON THU AND FRI...THEN GRADUALLY CLOCK TO THE E AT 15 KT ON SAT...EXCEPT BECOMING AN E-SE 15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS ON SAT NIGHT. ELY 15 KT FLOW CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE FL STRAITS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF ON WED...AND STALL BRIEFLY ALONG ABOUT 25N E OF 90W THU...WITH WINDS BECOMING NE AT 10 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS E OF 90W ON THU AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY DRY SURGE ON THU NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE N-NE FLOW TO 10-15 KT ON FRI...AND 15-20 KT ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FROM THU-SAT. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND IS MOVING W IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AT 15N64W. SUBSIDENCE W OF THE CYCLONE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THIS WAVE. EXPECT THE WAVE TO CONTINUE W PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED-THU...AND LIKELY LOSE IDENTITY IN THE W CARIBBEAN ON FRI- SAT. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER CYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARDS AND WINDWARDS AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WITH A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE JUST NOW ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN. THE LOW LEVEL WAVE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL STAY IN PHASE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY AS THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE WAVE CONTINUES W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU-FRI...AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ON SAT. THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SEPARATE LEAVING A TROUGH THAT CONTINUE NW INTO THE ATLC WATERS ON WED. EXPECTING E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT TO SPREAD NW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS TODAY...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING N OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH FROM TS HANNA WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY WITH A NE-E-SE 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT DENOTED IN THE GRIDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THU-SAT. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 26N63W THEN BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO HISPANIOLA. THE SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT TODAY WHILE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 27N55W TO 24N65W TODAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND WED...AND PASS W THOUGH THE WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. EXPECT ESE 20-25 KT WINDS MAINLY E OF TROUGH AXIS. WEAK REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS AREA ON FRI NIGHT. A NE-SW RIDGE TO EXTREME NE FL COAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SE LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR 31N75W. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY S TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY THU NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROUGH. A RE-ENFORCING NW SURGE ON FRI WILL MOVE THE TROUGH E AS A COLD FRONT WITH NLY 15- 20 KT WINDS SPREADING S ACROSS THE THE AREA N OF 25N W OF THE FRONT BY EARLY SAT. THE FRONT WILL REACH A LINE FROM BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA ON SAT NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.