000 AGXX40 KNHC 270526 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 126 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E ACROSS SOUTHERN GA EARLY TODAY THEN RACE OFF TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING A NE-SW RIDGE ACROSS THE SE CONUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT BY EARLY TUE...AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES ON WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT AROUND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 22N W OF 90W ON TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO 5-10 KT FROM THE N-NE ON THU. ENE 15 KT FLOW CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE FL STRAITS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME ESE AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS E OF 88W EARLY TUE...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WED. ALTHOUGH THE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE W- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT 15N82W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WSW AND INLAND TODAY...GUIDANCE HANGS ONTO THE LOW AND MOVES IT BACK OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NE AT 10-15 ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED...THEN INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ON THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ATTM WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING AN INCREASE IN THE ELY TRADES TO AT LEAST 15-20 KT E OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS BUT MOSTLY IN CONVECTION. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO RELAX E OF THE WAVE LATER TODAY SUPPORTING E WINDS AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED-THU REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN ON FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE S OF 18N ALONG 54W WILL PASS W THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON TUE-WED REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU- FRI. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES NEAR 15N83W AND IS ANALYZED AT 1007 MB. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY AND TRACKS THE LOW CENTER W OVER...OR JUST INLAND...THE N COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY THROUGH LATE TUE WHEN THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS BELIZE. STILL EXPECT CYCLONIC NE-E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW EARLY TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY 15 KT ON TUE. STILL EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG FRONTAL TROUGH REMNANTS W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP WHICH IS DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO HAITI WITH ENOUGH ENERGY TO KICK OF SCT TSTMS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E OF THE FRONT NEAR 22N66W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N57W TO 25N63W THEN BECOME STATIONARY TO HAITI LATE TODAY. THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT S OF 25N WILL QUICKLY WASH OUT ON TUE WHILE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 27N55W TO 24N65W ON TUE NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E OFF THE GA COAST EARLY TODAY THEN TURN TO THE NE AND QUICKLY LIFT OUT LEAVING A NE-SE RIDGE TO EXTREME NE FL COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE ON WED-FRI AS A WEAK TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR NW WATERS. THE TROUGH WILL RECEIVE A RE-ENFORCING NW SURGE ON FRI RESULTING IN A SW-W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.