000 AGXX40 KNHC 161814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 214 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 96 HOURS...THEN GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 96 HOURS...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 22N90W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 18N93W. THE 12Z OBSERVATION FROM COATZACOALCOS ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO INDICATED 30 KT...INDICATIVE OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ONGOING IN THE FAR SW GULF THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 7 FT OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. WINDS HAVE LIKELY STARTED TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MODEST SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE BASIN LATER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE STALLED OUT PORTION WHICH WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE E REACHING THE SE TIP OF LOUISIANA BY TOMORROW MORNING WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH SAT MORNING. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON TROUGH SAT WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF AND 2-3 FT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS AFTER SUN. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP BROAD LOW PRES IN THE SW GULF THROUGH SUN WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A DEEPENING LOW WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...ALL MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A MORE EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO STRONG RIDGING N OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR N OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME...SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BLEND MORE MODERATE 00Z ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEK TO TEMPER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS WITH SEAS BELOW MWW3 OUTPUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE WARNING GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO PULL TO THE N AWAY FROM THE BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE GONZALO AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH FLORIDA IS KEEPING RIDGING N OF THE AREA WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. AS A RESULT...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BY SHIPS...BUOYS AND RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. BUOYS AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES ALSO SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS OF ONLY 2 TO 4 FT OVERALL AS WELL. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATING NEAR CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA HEIGHTS...EXCEPT FOR WINDS OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO 20 KT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAJOR HURRICANE WARNING GONZALO CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE N IMPACTING PRIMARILY ZONE AMZ121 WITH THE OUTER EDGES OF THE STORM WARNING IMPACTING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF AMZ113 AND AMZ119...AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO AMZ115 SW OF BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST BRINGS GONZALO ON ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE FRI. ASSOCIATED SWELLS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WELL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE WATERS E OF 80W OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT MORNING AS GONZALO MOVES NE OF THE AREA WHILE RAPIDLY ACCELERATING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDE A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL SAG SE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE FRI. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DEPARTING GONZALO FRI NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM W TO E ALONG 27N SAT THROUGH SUN MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN NIGHT STALLING ALONG 29N/30N MON INTO MON NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ONCE GONZALO EXITS AND SEAS WILL BE 3-6 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO FRI. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.