000 AGXX40 KNHC 101908 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 308 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS UNDER PERSISTENT WEAK RIDGING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND WILL ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE WAVE AND RIDGING N OF THE AREA...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN ISSUE OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGHING CURRENTLY E OF THE NW BAHAMAS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF FRI INTO SAT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS WESTWARD...BUT THE UKMET AND CMC REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE. THIS MAY BE DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS AND ECMWF WITH ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE NICARAGUAN COAST THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN...RELATED TO LIFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER YUCATAN AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT RELATED TO THESE FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 55W WILL MOVE ACROSS W THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN ATLC IS EXPECTED TO START TO PASS TO THE NE OF THE AREA SUNDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM BY THIS WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE NW BAHAMAS IS STARTING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER TROUGH S OF THE AREA. A 1430 UTC ASCAT PASS DID NOT SHOW CONCLUSIVELY THAT THE TROUGH HAD CLOSED OFF YET AT THE SURFACE...BUT THIS IS POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF SHORTLY. THE PRES IS RELATIVELY HIGH HOWEVER AND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW PRES/TROUGH SHIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THU. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD 65W...BRINGING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEAK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...MAINTAINING A GENERALLY LIGHT WIND REGIME AND LIMITED SEAS N OF 22N. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING FRESH TRADES AT TIMES S OF 22N ALONG TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.