000 AGXX40 KNHC 190504 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 104 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE W ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND WED. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE NW GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE N-CENTRAL...AND NE GULF...WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SE-S 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL WINDS OVER THE W-CENTRAL AND NW WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT SLY RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT. S OF 23N...EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD... EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ON WED EVENING BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE. THESE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD W ALONG 22N GRADUALLY BECOMING E TO SE LATE WED NIGHT...AND DIMINISHING TO SE AT 20 KT NEAR 22N94W BY SUNRISE THU. THIS EVENING EVENT WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING EACH MORNING...AND LOSE IDENTITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL BE CARRIED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND WED...PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON THU... AND REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND SAT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON FRI AND LESSER ANTILLES ON SAT. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE MAXIMUM AFFECTED AREA OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY PATCHES OF 20-25 KT TRADES OVER THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON WED EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM E TO W ALONG 26N-28N THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTING E AND W ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE E OF 66W. A WEAK TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA AND STALL FROM 31N78W TO 28N80W TODAY...WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST SW- WSW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE... EXPECTING SW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME EARLY SAT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH DIPS INTO THE NW WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT. EASTERLY TRADES FROM THE RIDGE AXIS S TO ALONG 22N ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT. TO THE S OF 22N MODERATE 10-15 KT TRADES ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... WITH EVENING SURGES TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING ON THU EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.