000
AGXX40 KNHC 161702
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
102 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN E-W
RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STEERING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A STRONG BREEZE COULD
MOVE W OFF THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN EVENING AND SUN
NIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINDS EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA
WILL COME WED EVENING THROUGH EARLY THU WHEN THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 20-25 KT WINDS IN
THE EVENING OFFSHORE OF THE NW YUCATAN PROPAGATING W OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
20-25 KT AND 8 FT. THERE ARE FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE.
   
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE:  LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 
 
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA THIS MORNING ARE DIMINISHING. THE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL SHRINK LATER TODAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND AGAIN
BEHIND THE WAVE MON MORNING THROUGH TUE AND THEN REMAIN PRIMARILY
IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...WINDS WILL PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TUE NIGHT
AND WED NIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH
THE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. ITS
STRONGER FORECAST GENERALLY FARES WELL. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE
WELL INITIALIZED. 
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER BETWEEN 26N AND 27N THROUGH WED
NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA AND ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE IT
WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE EVENINGS THROUGH SUN
EVENING BEFORE THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST...EXCEPT IN WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W IN THE
INITIAL PERIODS WHERE THE 1402 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25 KT SW WINDS
ON THE E SIDE OF A WEAK LLVL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE GEFS SHOWS UP TO A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF 20-25 KT WINDS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.